Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate the minimum temperature in New York City on September 21 will likely occur during the early morning or overnight hours under northeast flow following Sunday's rain. Forecasts consistently place this low in the upper 50s to low 60s, with most runs clustering near 58–61°F amid partly to mostly cloudy skies and a modest chance of showers. This positions the 60–61°F and 62–63°F bins as the closest market outcomes because ensemble spreads and slight variations in cloud cover or wind timing can shift the exact minimum by a degree or two. Historical September minima for the date average near 60°F, providing climatological context for the current tight distribution. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion expected within 24 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could refine probabilities before resolution.