**Forecast model divergence and an incoming cooler northeasterly flow are driving the near-even split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes for Toronto’s September 21 minimum.** Current guidance from sources including Environment Canada and GFS-based runs points to a daytime high near 16°C under mostly cloudy skies, with the daily low likely occurring in the early morning hours amid 13–20 km/h northeast winds and high pressure building to around 1025 hPa. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling overnight, but small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could push the minimum several degrees either way—explaining why specific bins like 10°C and 11°C each carry 20–24% implied probability. Historical September averages (around 13°C) provide context, yet the active pattern this week has produced larger day-to-day variability than typical late-summer conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings overnight will likely narrow the range before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Toronto no dia 21 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Toronto no dia 21 de setembro?
4°C ou menos 99%
14°C ou mais 98%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NOVO
NOVO
21 set 2026
4°C ou menos
99%
5°C
17%
6°C
17%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
40%
10°C
24%
11°C
21%
12°C
39%
13°C
17%
14°C ou mais
98%
4°C ou menos 99%
14°C ou mais 98%
9°C 40%
10°C 40%
NOVO
NOVO
21 set 2026
4°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
99%
5°C
$0 Vol.
17%
6°C
$0 Vol.
17%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$5 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence and an incoming cooler northeasterly flow are driving the near-even split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes for Toronto’s September 21 minimum.** Current guidance from sources including Environment Canada and GFS-based runs points to a daytime high near 16°C under mostly cloudy skies, with the daily low likely occurring in the early morning hours amid 13–20 km/h northeast winds and high pressure building to around 1025 hPa. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling overnight, but small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could push the minimum several degrees either way—explaining why specific bins like 10°C and 11°C each carry 20–24% implied probability. Historical September averages (around 13°C) provide context, yet the active pattern this week has produced larger day-to-day variability than typical late-summer conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings overnight will likely narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$5Data de Término
21 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence and an incoming cooler northeasterly flow are driving the near-even split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes for Toronto’s September 21 minimum.** Current guidance from sources including Environment Canada and GFS-based runs points to a daytime high near 16°C under mostly cloudy skies, with the daily low likely occurring in the early morning hours amid 13–20 km/h northeast winds and high pressure building to around 1025 hPa. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling overnight, but small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could push the minimum several degrees either way—explaining why specific bins like 10°C and 11°C each carry 20–24% implied probability. Historical September averages (around 13°C) provide context, yet the active pattern this week has produced larger day-to-day variability than typical late-summer conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings overnight will likely narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5Data de Término
21 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model divergence and an incoming cooler northeasterly flow are driving the near-even split between sub-5°C and 14°C+ outcomes for Toronto’s September 21 minimum.** Current guidance from sources including Environment Canada and GFS-based runs points to a daytime high near 16°C under mostly cloudy skies, with the daily low likely occurring in the early morning hours amid 13–20 km/h northeast winds and high pressure building to around 1025 hPa. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling overnight, but small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could push the minimum several degrees either way—explaining why specific bins like 10°C and 11°C each carry 20–24% implied probability. Historical September averages (around 13°C) provide context, yet the active pattern this week has produced larger day-to-day variability than typical late-summer conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings overnight will likely narrow the range before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions