**Official forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and international models indicate a nighttime low near 27°C in Taipei on August 29, 2026, consistent with the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for that exact outcome.** In Taipei's subtropical monsoon climate, late-August nighttime temperatures typically stabilize in the 25–27°C range due to high humidity, urban heat retention, and limited radiative cooling under cloudy or showery conditions. Multiple CWB updates project evening lows of 27–30°C for August 29 following the passage of Typhoon Shandel's outer bands, with lingering moisture supporting afternoon thunderstorms that may modestly enhance overnight cooling but not dramatically. Supporting model consensus from WeatherBug, Worldmeteo, and others shows overnight minima around 25–27°C (roughly 77–81°F), reflecting typical seasonal baselines without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. The 30% probability attached to 22°C or below captures residual uncertainty from variable rainfall intensity or model spread, while the cluster of 23–28°C outcomes (collectively dominant) aligns with the narrow historical and forecast envelope. No major data shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours; steering patterns and the post-typhoon environment remain the key drivers, with traders likely weighting the consistent official guidance and climatology heavily. Resolution will hinge on the precise minimum recorded between 00:00–06:00 local time on August 29.