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icon for Macron fora por...?
Política·França

Macron fora por...?

icon for Macron fora por...?
Política·França

Macron fora por...?

$2,152,997 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$2,152,997 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2026

$24,125 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron remains president with his second and final term scheduled to conclude in May 2027, as French constitutional rules bar a consecutive third mandate and he has publicly committed to serving until its end without seeking further office. Persistent parliamentary fragmentation, repeated prime ministerial turnovers through 2025, and low domestic approval ratings near 20% have fueled speculation, yet no successful no-confidence motion or other mechanism has forced an early departure. Traders assign low probabilities to an exit before late 2026, reflecting the absence of acute recent catalysts capable of overriding his institutional position and stated intent. Focus has shifted to foreign policy initiatives and budget management amid economic pressures, with the 2027 presidential contest now the dominant horizon.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,152,997
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron remains president with his second and final term scheduled to conclude in May 2027, as French constitutional rules bar a consecutive third mandate and he has publicly committed to serving until its end without seeking further office. Persistent parliamentary fragmentation, repeated prime ministerial turnovers through 2025, and low domestic approval ratings near 20% have fueled speculation, yet no successful no-confidence motion or other mechanism has forced an early departure. Traders assign low probabilities to an exit before late 2026, reflecting the absence of acute recent catalysts capable of overriding his institutional position and stated intent. Focus has shifted to foreign policy initiatives and budget management amid economic pressures, with the 2027 presidential contest now the dominant horizon.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,152,997
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Macron fora por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 4%, followed by "July 31, 2026" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Macron fora por...?" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Macron fora por...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Macron fora por...?" is "December 31, 2026" at just 4%, with "July 31, 2026" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Macron fora por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.