Trader consensus on "No" for an extreme natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of qualifying events through early August and neutral atmospheric conditions. NOAA and NHC data show ENSO-neutral patterns with moderate sea-surface temperatures and no signals for a Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS records indicate no 8.5+ earthquakes and no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. Seasonal outlooks point to typical hurricane activity rather than record anomalies, and historical baselines confirm such threshold events remain rare even during active years. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and continued seismic monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing remaining-year probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDesastre natural em 2026?
Desastre natural em 2026?
Sim
$232,536 Vol.
$232,536 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$232,536 Vol.
$232,536 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on "No" for an extreme natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of qualifying events through early August and neutral atmospheric conditions. NOAA and NHC data show ENSO-neutral patterns with moderate sea-surface temperatures and no signals for a Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS records indicate no 8.5+ earthquakes and no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. Seasonal outlooks point to typical hurricane activity rather than record anomalies, and historical baselines confirm such threshold events remain rare even during active years. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and continued seismic monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing remaining-year probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$232,536Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on "No" for an extreme natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of qualifying events through early August and neutral atmospheric conditions. NOAA and NHC data show ENSO-neutral patterns with moderate sea-surface temperatures and no signals for a Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS records indicate no 8.5+ earthquakes and no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. Seasonal outlooks point to typical hurricane activity rather than record anomalies, and historical baselines confirm such threshold events remain rare even during active years. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and continued seismic monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing remaining-year probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$232,536Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on "No" for an extreme natural disaster in 2026 rests on the absence of qualifying events through early August and neutral atmospheric conditions. NOAA and NHC data show ENSO-neutral patterns with moderate sea-surface temperatures and no signals for a Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS records indicate no 8.5+ earthquakes and no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. Seasonal outlooks point to typical hurricane activity rather than record anomalies, and historical baselines confirm such threshold events remain rare even during active years. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and continued seismic monitoring will provide the next key data points for traders assessing remaining-year probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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