Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured his party's nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary for New York's 25th congressional district, advancing to the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. The Rochester-centered district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in historical margins and partisan voting indexes that have consistently favored the incumbent since his 2018 election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the seat's structural advantages and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or notable primary challenges. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen events such as candidate health developments, major national political realignments, or late-cycle turnout surges, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in this district.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Representantes NY-25
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Representantes NY-25
$25,341 Vol.
$25,341 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
2%
$25,341 Vol.
$25,341 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$15,110 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$10,232 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured his party's nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary for New York's 25th congressional district, advancing to the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. The Rochester-centered district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in historical margins and partisan voting indexes that have consistently favored the incumbent since his 2018 election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the seat's structural advantages and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or notable primary challenges. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen events such as candidate health developments, major national political realignments, or late-cycle turnout surges, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,341Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured his party's nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary for New York's 25th congressional district, advancing to the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. The Rochester-centered district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in historical margins and partisan voting indexes that have consistently favored the incumbent since his 2018 election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the seat's structural advantages and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or notable primary challenges. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen events such as candidate health developments, major national political realignments, or late-cycle turnout surges, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,341Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle secured his party's nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary for New York's 25th congressional district, advancing to the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. The Rochester-centered district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in historical margins and partisan voting indexes that have consistently favored the incumbent since his 2018 election. Traders assign the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the seat's structural advantages and the absence of competitive Republican momentum or notable primary challenges. Potential shifts could arise from unforeseen events such as candidate health developments, major national political realignments, or late-cycle turnout surges, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in this district.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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