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PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas

Market icon

PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas

Bob Brooks 61%

Ryan Crosswell 34%

Aiden Gonzalez 4.5%

Lamont McClure 4.3%

Polymarket

$14,349 Vol.

Bob Brooks 61%

Ryan Crosswell 34%

Aiden Gonzalez 4.5%

Lamont McClure 4.3%

Polymarket

$14,349 Vol.

Bob Brooks

$1,908 Vol.

61%

Ryan Crosswell

$2,263 Vol.

29%

Aiden Gonzalez

$1,326 Vol.

5%

Lamont McClure

$2,858 Vol.

4%

Carol Obando-Derstine

$4,011 Vol.

3%

Lewis Shupe

$1,983 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bob Brooks leads trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability in the PA-07 Democratic primary, driven by high-profile endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro—who featured in a six-figure TV ad buy launched April 7—and progressive groups like the Working Families Party, alongside strong union backing as Pennsylvania firefighters president. A recent Change Research survey of likely voters showed Brooks surging to 30% after biographical information, ahead of Ryan Crosswell at 18%, signaling his appeal in the working-class Lehigh Valley district. Crosswell holds 27% odds bolstered by top Q1 fundraising ($483K raised, $715K cash-on-hand) and VoteVets support, but lags in institutional momentum. With the May 19 primary approaching, debates like the April 1 forum highlighted credentials, keeping the race competitive amid undecided voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,349
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bob Brooks leads trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability in the PA-07 Democratic primary, driven by high-profile endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro—who featured in a six-figure TV ad buy launched April 7—and progressive groups like the Working Families Party, alongside strong union backing as Pennsylvania firefighters president. A recent Change Research survey of likely voters showed Brooks surging to 30% after biographical information, ahead of Ryan Crosswell at 18%, signaling his appeal in the working-class Lehigh Valley district. Crosswell holds 27% odds bolstered by top Q1 fundraising ($483K raised, $715K cash-on-hand) and VoteVets support, but lags in institutional momentum. With the May 19 primary approaching, debates like the April 1 forum highlighted credentials, keeping the race competitive amid undecided voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$14,349
Data de Término
19 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bob Brooks" at 61%, followed by "Ryan Crosswell" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" has generated $14.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" is "Bob Brooks" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Crosswell" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "PA-07 Vencedor das Primárias Democráticas" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.