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Política·Eleições Globais

Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória

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Política·Eleições Globais

Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória

Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 78.9%

Keiko Fujimori <5% 11.8%

Outro 3.2%

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%

Polymarket

$286,506 Vol.

Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 78.9%

Keiko Fujimori <5% 11.8%

Outro 3.2%

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%

Polymarket

$286,506 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por pelo menos 15%? icon

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+

$8,336 Vol.

<1%

Rafael López Aliaga vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por uma margem entre 10% e 15%? icon

Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%

$10,022 Vol.

<1%

Rafael López Aliaga vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 com uma diferença entre 5% e 10%? icon

Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%

$6,707 Vol.

<1%

Rafael López Aliaga vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por menos de 5%? icon

Rafael López Aliaga <5%

$11,227 Vol.

<1%

Alfonso López Chau vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por pelo menos 5%? icon

Alfonso López Chau 5%+

$6,911 Vol.

<1%

Alfonso López Chau vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por menos de 5%? icon

Alfonso López Chau <5%

$6,047 Vol.

<1%

Keiko Fujimori vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por pelo menos 5%? icon

Keiko Fujimori 5%+

$78,882 Vol.

79%

Keiko Fujimori vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por menos de 5%? icon

Keiko Fujimori <5%

$105,461 Vol.

14%

Jorge Nieto vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por qualquer margem? icon

Jorge Nieto

$6,335 Vol.

<1%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por alguma margem? icon

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$10,618 Vol.

<1%

Wolfgang Grozo vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026 por qualquer margem? icon

Wolfgang Grozo

$4,420 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Álvarez vencerá o primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais do Peru de 2026 por qualquer margem? icon

Carlos Álvarez

$5,810 Vol.

<1%

Outro resultado ocorrerá no primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais peruanas de 2026? icon

Outro

$25,730 Vol.

3%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum following Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12-13 consistently position Keiko Fujimori first with 16.5-17.1% of valid votes, leading challengers like Rafael López Aliaga, Roberto Sánchez Palomino, and Jorge Nieto by approximately 4-5 percentage points in a fragmented 35-candidate field requiring a runoff on June 7. Logistical delays in ballot delivery extended voting and slowed official ONPE tallies to 91% processed as of April 15, confirming her 17.04% versus 12.07% for second-place Sánchez—a near-5% gap—bolstering trader consensus on a 5%+ margin while a tight second-place battle elevates the <5% risk to 14.4%. No other outcomes garner traction amid her dominant lead.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$286,506
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Exit polls and quick counts from Ipsos and Datum following Peru's first-round presidential election on April 12-13 consistently position Keiko Fujimori first with 16.5-17.1% of valid votes, leading challengers like Rafael López Aliaga, Roberto Sánchez Palomino, and Jorge Nieto by approximately 4-5 percentage points in a fragmented 35-candidate field requiring a runoff on June 7. Logistical delays in ballot delivery extended voting and slowed official ONPE tallies to 91% processed as of April 15, confirming her 17.04% versus 12.07% for second-place Sánchez—a near-5% gap—bolstering trader consensus on a 5%+ margin while a tight second-place battle elevates the <5% risk to 14.4%. No other outcomes garner traction amid her dominant lead.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$286,506
Data de Término
12 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Keiko Fujimori 5%+" at 79%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori <5%" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória" has generated $286.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória" is "Keiko Fujimori 5%+" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori <5%" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial do Peru no primeiro turno: margem de vitória" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.