Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round turnout heavily favors the 70-75% band at 85.7% implied probability, reflecting pre-election expectations of voter apathy amid political fragmentation with over 30 candidates, economic woes, and security concerns that historically drove 2021 turnout to around 75%. The April 12-13 vote faced severe logistical disruptions—ballot shortages disenfranchised thousands, prompting an unprecedented extension to a second day and police interventions—potentially suppressing participation below exit poll estimates. Ipsos quick count reported 81.3% turnout, lifting odds for 75-80% to 10.5%, but traders await official ONPE tally amid slow acta processing and fraud allegations, maintaining skepticism on higher figures. Overseas participation hit 40%, a positive signal.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado70-75% 85.7%
75-80% 11%
80-85% 2.7%
< 70% 1.8%
$121,535 Vol.
$121,535 Vol.
12 abr 2026
< 70%
2%
70-75%
86%
75-80%
11%
80-85%
3%
> 85%
<1%
70-75% 85.7%
75-80% 11%
80-85% 2.7%
< 70% 1.8%
$121,535 Vol.
$121,535 Vol.
12 abr 2026
< 70%
$18,233 Vol.
2%
70-75%
$34,805 Vol.
86%
75-80%
$18,702 Vol.
11%
80-85%
$42,166 Vol.
3%
> 85%
$7,629 Vol.
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round turnout heavily favors the 70-75% band at 85.7% implied probability, reflecting pre-election expectations of voter apathy amid political fragmentation with over 30 candidates, economic woes, and security concerns that historically drove 2021 turnout to around 75%. The April 12-13 vote faced severe logistical disruptions—ballot shortages disenfranchised thousands, prompting an unprecedented extension to a second day and police interventions—potentially suppressing participation below exit poll estimates. Ipsos quick count reported 81.3% turnout, lifting odds for 75-80% to 10.5%, but traders await official ONPE tally amid slow acta processing and fraud allegations, maintaining skepticism on higher figures. Overseas participation hit 40%, a positive signal.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volume
$121,535Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round turnout heavily favors the 70-75% band at 85.7% implied probability, reflecting pre-election expectations of voter apathy amid political fragmentation with over 30 candidates, economic woes, and security concerns that historically drove 2021 turnout to around 75%. The April 12-13 vote faced severe logistical disruptions—ballot shortages disenfranchised thousands, prompting an unprecedented extension to a second day and police interventions—potentially suppressing participation below exit poll estimates. Ipsos quick count reported 81.3% turnout, lifting odds for 75-80% to 10.5%, but traders await official ONPE tally amid slow acta processing and fraud allegations, maintaining skepticism on higher figures. Overseas participation hit 40%, a positive signal.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles).
This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$121,535Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's presidential election first-round turnout heavily favors the 70-75% band at 85.7% implied probability, reflecting pre-election expectations of voter apathy amid political fragmentation with over 30 candidates, economic woes, and security concerns that historically drove 2021 turnout to around 75%. The April 12-13 vote faced severe logistical disruptions—ballot shortages disenfranchised thousands, prompting an unprecedented extension to a second day and police interventions—potentially suppressing participation below exit poll estimates. Ipsos quick count reported 81.3% turnout, lifting odds for 75-80% to 10.5%, but traders await official ONPE tally amid slow acta processing and fraud allegations, maintaining skepticism on higher figures. Overseas participation hit 40%, a positive signal.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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