US forces conducted a limited special operations raid into Venezuelan territory on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife during Operation Absolute Resolve, which included targeted airstrikes on air defenses and infrastructure around Caracas. That action resolved earlier prediction markets but set the baseline for “again” contracts extending into mid-2026. Since then, Delcy Rodríguez has served as interim president under a declared state of emergency, political prisoners have been released in limited numbers, and US statements have emphasized oil-sector leverage and legal proceedings rather than sustained ground presence. Congressional efforts to constrain further hostilities under the War Powers Resolution have advanced but remain unresolved, while no verified reports of additional US military entries have emerged in the ensuing months. Trader pricing on later resolution dates therefore reflects the absence of fresh escalation triggers amid ongoing diplomatic and sanctions pressure.