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Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales

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Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales

Plaid Cymru 81%

Reform UK 15%

Partido Trabalhista Galês 4.9%

Conservadores Galeses <1%

Polymarket

$18,987 Vol.

Plaid Cymru 81%

Reform UK 15%

Partido Trabalhista Galês 4.9%

Conservadores Galeses <1%

Polymarket

$18,987 Vol.

Partido Trabalhista Galês

$3,326 Vol.

5%

Plaid Cymru

$5,740 Vol.

81%

Conservadores Galeses

$2,492 Vol.

<1%

Reform UK

$3,859 Vol.

15%

Liberal Democratas Galês

$1,865 Vol.

<1%

Partido Verde Galês

$1,706 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru's dominant 80.5% implied probability as the winner of the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election reflects trader consensus on its sustained polling lead for the May 2026 vote, driven by Welsh Labour's turmoil including ex-First Minister Vaughan Gething's July 2024 resignation over a controversial business donation and subsequent no-confidence defeat. New leader Eluned Morgan's August election has failed to reverse Labour's slide, with recent surveys showing Plaid consistently ahead amid UK-wide budget backlash against Chancellor Rachel Reeves' October measures eroding support in Wales. Reform UK's 15% reflects its rising anti-establishment appeal from UK general election gains, while legacy parties lag due to vote fragmentation under the Senedd's proportional representation system. Upcoming council by-elections could further test these dynamics.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Volume
$18,987
Data de Término
May 7, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru's dominant 80.5% implied probability as the winner of the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election reflects trader consensus on its sustained polling lead for the May 2026 vote, driven by Welsh Labour's turmoil including ex-First Minister Vaughan Gething's July 2024 resignation over a controversial business donation and subsequent no-confidence defeat. New leader Eluned Morgan's August election has failed to reverse Labour's slide, with recent surveys showing Plaid consistently ahead amid UK-wide budget backlash against Chancellor Rachel Reeves' October measures eroding support in Wales. Reform UK's 15% reflects its rising anti-establishment appeal from UK general election gains, while legacy parties lag due to vote fragmentation under the Senedd's proportional representation system. Upcoming council by-elections could further test these dynamics.

Plaid Cymru's dominant 80.5% implied probability as the winner of the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) election reflects trader consensus on its sustained polling lead for the May 2026 vote, driven by Welsh Labour's turmoil including ex-First Minister Vaughan Gething's July 2024 resignation over a controversial business donation and subsequent no-confidence defeat. New leader Eluned Morgan's August election has failed to reverse Labour's slide, with recent surveys showing Plaid consistently ahead amid UK-wide budget backlash against Chancellor Rachel Reeves' October measures eroding support in Wales. Reform UK's 15% reflects its rising anti-establishment appeal from UK general election gains, while legacy parties lag due to vote fragmentation under the Senedd's proportional representation system. Upcoming council by-elections could further test these dynamics.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Plaid Cymru" at 81%, followed by "Reform UK" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales" has generated $19K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales" is "Plaid Cymru" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reform UK" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares do País de Gales" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.