Mark Carney’s Liberal government secured a parliamentary majority in April 2026 through by-elections and floor-crossings after the April 2025 minority win, enabling it to govern without reliance on opposition support until the fixed-date election of October 15, 2029. This majority status has lowered the immediate risk of a no-confidence defeat or forced dissolution, shifting trader focus toward the prime minister’s strategic discretion to call a snap election. Key variables include sustained Liberal polling leads, economic pressures such as inflation and trade tensions with the United States, and upcoming by-elections on August 31, 2026, which could test or reinforce the government’s position. Historical precedent shows majority governments rarely trigger early votes absent sharp declines in support or external shocks, while the Canada Elections Act permits dissolution at any time on the prime minister’s advice to the governor general.