Polymarket traders are pricing a 63.5% implied probability for the Bank of Russia to cut its key rate at the June 7 meeting, driven primarily by cooling inflation now at 7.8% year-over-year in April—down from peaks above 9%—and a stabilizing ruble amid steady oil exports despite sanctions. No change sits at 33.5% as a consensus hedge, reflecting Governor Nabiullina's cautious signals that rates must remain restrictive longer to anchor expectations near the 4% target. An increase, at just 18%, appears unlikely given slowing GDP growth to 1.2% annualized in Q1 and fiscal tightening, positioning a 100bps cut as the market's baseline amid real capital backing these odds.