Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 97% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including probes into top generals in early 2026, have been viewed as mechanisms to enforce loyalty rather than indicators of factional fracture. The absence of organized elite opposition, combined with extensive state surveillance and command structures, has historically prevented successful challenges to central leadership. While a sudden leadership vacuum, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite cohesion, or major external military setback could theoretically alter dynamics, such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution window given current institutional controls.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$153,494 Объем
$153,494 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$153,494 Объем
$153,494 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 97% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including probes into top generals in early 2026, have been viewed as mechanisms to enforce loyalty rather than indicators of factional fracture. The absence of organized elite opposition, combined with extensive state surveillance and command structures, has historically prevented successful challenges to central leadership. While a sudden leadership vacuum, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite cohesion, or major external military setback could theoretically alter dynamics, such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution window given current institutional controls.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$153,494Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 97% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including probes into top generals in early 2026, have been viewed as mechanisms to enforce loyalty rather than indicators of factional fracture. The absence of organized elite opposition, combined with extensive state surveillance and command structures, has historically prevented successful challenges to central leadership. While a sudden leadership vacuum, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite cohesion, or major external military setback could theoretically alter dynamics, such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution window given current institutional controls.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$153,494Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 97% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges targeting senior military figures, including probes into top generals in early 2026, have been viewed as mechanisms to enforce loyalty rather than indicators of factional fracture. The absence of organized elite opposition, combined with extensive state surveillance and command structures, has historically prevented successful challenges to central leadership. While a sudden leadership vacuum, severe economic dislocation fracturing elite cohesion, or major external military setback could theoretically alter dynamics, such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution window given current institutional controls.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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