Latest numerical weather prediction models from global ensembles and Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate a maximum temperature in Buenos Aires on August 10 most likely between 11–13 °C, with 12 °C as the current mode. This clustering reflects a stable winter high-pressure ridge suppressing stronger warming while allowing modest daytime heating under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest because cold-air advection from the south has eased and no significant frontal passage is expected overnight. Official resolution will rely on the highest hourly reading at the designated station, typically Aeroparque; any late-model shift in cloud cover or wind could nudge the outcome between the tightly bunched 11 °C, 12 °C, and 13 °C contracts that together exceed 70 % implied probability.