**Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a cooling trend after peak heat on August 10, positioning 21–23°C as the dominant outcomes for Warsaw’s August 11 maximum.** A shift toward northerly or northwesterly flow is expected to advect cooler maritime air, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating compared to the prior hot, sunny regime. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most members clustering in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius; any residual instability or clearer breaks could nudge readings toward 24°C, while thicker cloud or light showers would favor 21°C or below. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages near 23–24°C, so the current setup reflects a below-normal anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Updated IMGW briefings and 12z/00z model cycles over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.