Iran’s 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, triggered by February strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created leadership vacuums and internal power contests that have shaped trader views on coup risk. Hardline factions publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” in July by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and advancing truce talks while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remained largely absent. These disputes peaked around Ali Khamenei’s funeral but produced no widely reported military or security-force action meeting standard coup definitions. Recent Iranian claims of dismantling foreign-linked cells in September and continued opposition reports of regime defections sustain limited probability, yet the absence of coordinated execution or independent corroboration of an attempt keeps implied odds low amid strong regime security measures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПопытка государственного переворота в Иране...?
Попытка государственного переворота в Иране...?
$2,137,298 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
10%
$2,137,298 Объем
31 декабря
$96,072 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, triggered by February strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created leadership vacuums and internal power contests that have shaped trader views on coup risk. Hardline factions publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” in July by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and advancing truce talks while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remained largely absent. These disputes peaked around Ali Khamenei’s funeral but produced no widely reported military or security-force action meeting standard coup definitions. Recent Iranian claims of dismantling foreign-linked cells in September and continued opposition reports of regime defections sustain limited probability, yet the absence of coordinated execution or independent corroboration of an attempt keeps implied odds low amid strong regime security measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,137,298Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, triggered by February strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created leadership vacuums and internal power contests that have shaped trader views on coup risk. Hardline factions publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” in July by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and advancing truce talks while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remained largely absent. These disputes peaked around Ali Khamenei’s funeral but produced no widely reported military or security-force action meeting standard coup definitions. Recent Iranian claims of dismantling foreign-linked cells in September and continued opposition reports of regime defections sustain limited probability, yet the absence of coordinated execution or independent corroboration of an attempt keeps implied odds low amid strong regime security measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,137,298Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Iran’s 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, triggered by February strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, created leadership vacuums and internal power contests that have shaped trader views on coup risk. Hardline factions publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of a “soft coup” in July by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and advancing truce talks while new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remained largely absent. These disputes peaked around Ali Khamenei’s funeral but produced no widely reported military or security-force action meeting standard coup definitions. Recent Iranian claims of dismantling foreign-linked cells in September and continued opposition reports of regime defections sustain limited probability, yet the absence of coordinated execution or independent corroboration of an attempt keeps implied odds low amid strong regime security measures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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