Moonshot AI's rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 on July 16—sets expectations for a K4 successor, yet no official model card, weights, API variant, or release has appeared as of mid-September. July reporting confirmed the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger K4, despite U.S. export controls and related scrutiny over potential distillation of U.S. models. Recent focus has shifted to K3 optimizations and a September K2.8 Preview rollout, while regulatory friction and compute constraints create realistic delays. Traders price the outcome on whether Moonshot sustains its historical two-to-three-month cycle or hits typical frontier-model scaling timelines into late 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKimi K4 выпущена...?
Kimi K4 выпущена...?
$17,843 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября 2026 года
4%
31 декабря 2026 года
6%
$17,843 Объем
31 октября 2026 года
$9,518 Объем
4%
31 декабря 2026 года
$8,325 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 on July 16—sets expectations for a K4 successor, yet no official model card, weights, API variant, or release has appeared as of mid-September. July reporting confirmed the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger K4, despite U.S. export controls and related scrutiny over potential distillation of U.S. models. Recent focus has shifted to K3 optimizations and a September K2.8 Preview rollout, while regulatory friction and compute constraints create realistic delays. Traders price the outcome on whether Moonshot sustains its historical two-to-three-month cycle or hits typical frontier-model scaling timelines into late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$17,843Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 on July 16—sets expectations for a K4 successor, yet no official model card, weights, API variant, or release has appeared as of mid-September. July reporting confirmed the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger K4, despite U.S. export controls and related scrutiny over potential distillation of U.S. models. Recent focus has shifted to K3 optimizations and a September K2.8 Preview rollout, while regulatory friction and compute constraints create realistic delays. Traders price the outcome on whether Moonshot sustains its historical two-to-three-month cycle or hits typical frontier-model scaling timelines into late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$17,843Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's rapid cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 on July 16—sets expectations for a K4 successor, yet no official model card, weights, API variant, or release has appeared as of mid-September. July reporting confirmed the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell chips to train a meaningfully larger K4, despite U.S. export controls and related scrutiny over potential distillation of U.S. models. Recent focus has shifted to K3 optimizations and a September K2.8 Preview rollout, while regulatory friction and compute constraints create realistic delays. Traders price the outcome on whether Moonshot sustains its historical two-to-three-month cycle or hits typical frontier-model scaling timelines into late 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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