Moonshot AI remains the clear frontrunner for any Kimi K4 release, having shipped Kimi K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) in July 2026 and open weights shortly after, followed by the K2.8 Preview in Kimi Code on September 11 that closes much of the gap to K3 with more efficient reasoning. Reporting indicates the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, consistent with its rapid cadence of major updates every 2–3 months. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers, plus ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and distillation allegations, could affect timelines, while Moonshot’s strong revenue growth and IPO plans support continued investment in next-generation models. Traders should watch for official announcements on architecture, benchmarks, or compute partnerships that could shift implied probabilities on release timing or attribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоKimi K4 выпущена...?
Kimi K4 выпущена...?
$17,814 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября 2026 года
4%
31 декабря 2026 года
5%
$17,814 Объем
31 октября 2026 года
$9,489 Объем
4%
31 декабря 2026 года
$8,325 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI remains the clear frontrunner for any Kimi K4 release, having shipped Kimi K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) in July 2026 and open weights shortly after, followed by the K2.8 Preview in Kimi Code on September 11 that closes much of the gap to K3 with more efficient reasoning. Reporting indicates the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, consistent with its rapid cadence of major updates every 2–3 months. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers, plus ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and distillation allegations, could affect timelines, while Moonshot’s strong revenue growth and IPO plans support continued investment in next-generation models. Traders should watch for official announcements on architecture, benchmarks, or compute partnerships that could shift implied probabilities on release timing or attribution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$17,814Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI remains the clear frontrunner for any Kimi K4 release, having shipped Kimi K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) in July 2026 and open weights shortly after, followed by the K2.8 Preview in Kimi Code on September 11 that closes much of the gap to K3 with more efficient reasoning. Reporting indicates the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, consistent with its rapid cadence of major updates every 2–3 months. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers, plus ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and distillation allegations, could affect timelines, while Moonshot’s strong revenue growth and IPO plans support continued investment in next-generation models. Traders should watch for official announcements on architecture, benchmarks, or compute partnerships that could shift implied probabilities on release timing or attribution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$17,814Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI remains the clear frontrunner for any Kimi K4 release, having shipped Kimi K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) in July 2026 and open weights shortly after, followed by the K2.8 Preview in Kimi Code on September 11 that closes much of the gap to K3 with more efficient reasoning. Reporting indicates the company is actively procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, consistent with its rapid cadence of major updates every 2–3 months. Competitive pressure from U.S. frontier labs and other Chinese developers, plus ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny and distillation allegations, could affect timelines, while Moonshot’s strong revenue growth and IPO plans support continued investment in next-generation models. Traders should watch for official announcements on architecture, benchmarks, or compute partnerships that could shift implied probabilities on release timing or attribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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