**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature for Tel Aviv on August 31 most likely falling in the 24–26°C range, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those outcomes.** Multiple sources, including WeatherBug, WindBorne, the UK Met Office, and Yr.no, project overnight lows near 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F) under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and humidity levels of 65–85%. These conditions limit radiative cooling typical in drier inland areas, as the Mediterranean Sea moderates air masses and maintains relatively high dew points around 20–23°C. Recent stability in late-summer patterns, with no strong frontal systems or heatwave intrusions, supports this consensus. Historical August minima in Tel Aviv average near 25–26°C, providing context for why extremes below 22°C or above 27°C carry lower implied odds. Slight model differences in timing of the daily minimum or local urban heat-island effects explain the close spread among leading outcomes. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band in official forecasts from agencies like Israel’s meteorological service, with upcoming model updates or real-time observations near resolution likely to drive any final shifts.