National Party support has softened in recent months amid economic pressures and declining approval ratings for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leaving it competitive with Labour for second place behind a possible frontrunner. July 2026 polling averages show National around 29-30% and Labour near 28-34%, with volatility driven by rising minor-party shares for New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party approaching the 5% threshold. The National-ACT-NZ First coalition retains a narrow projected seat majority overall, but individual party rankings remain fluid as voters weigh coalition performance against opposition alternatives ahead of the November 7 election. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring National slightly over Labour for second place while assigning negligible probability to smaller parties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 61%
Labour Party 40%
New Zealand First Party 1.8%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$15,752 Объем
$15,752 Объем
7 нояб. 2026 г.
National Party
61%
Labour Party
40%
New Zealand First Party
2%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Green Party
1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
National Party 61%
Labour Party 40%
New Zealand First Party 1.8%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$15,752 Объем
$15,752 Объем
7 нояб. 2026 г.
National Party
$8,190 Объем
61%
Labour Party
$3,331 Объем
40%
New Zealand First Party
$1,262 Объем
2%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,199 Объем
1%
Green Party
$542 Объем
1%
ACT New Zealand
$1,228 Объем
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).National Party support has softened in recent months amid economic pressures and declining approval ratings for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leaving it competitive with Labour for second place behind a possible frontrunner. July 2026 polling averages show National around 29-30% and Labour near 28-34%, with volatility driven by rising minor-party shares for New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party approaching the 5% threshold. The National-ACT-NZ First coalition retains a narrow projected seat majority overall, but individual party rankings remain fluid as voters weigh coalition performance against opposition alternatives ahead of the November 7 election. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring National slightly over Labour for second place while assigning negligible probability to smaller parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Объем
$15,752Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).National Party support has softened in recent months amid economic pressures and declining approval ratings for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leaving it competitive with Labour for second place behind a possible frontrunner. July 2026 polling averages show National around 29-30% and Labour near 28-34%, with volatility driven by rising minor-party shares for New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party approaching the 5% threshold. The National-ACT-NZ First coalition retains a narrow projected seat majority overall, but individual party rankings remain fluid as voters weigh coalition performance against opposition alternatives ahead of the November 7 election. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring National slightly over Labour for second place while assigning negligible probability to smaller parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Объем
$15,752Дата окончания
7 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Party support has softened in recent months amid economic pressures and declining approval ratings for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, leaving it competitive with Labour for second place behind a possible frontrunner. July 2026 polling averages show National around 29-30% and Labour near 28-34%, with volatility driven by rising minor-party shares for New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party approaching the 5% threshold. The National-ACT-NZ First coalition retains a narrow projected seat majority overall, but individual party rankings remain fluid as voters weigh coalition performance against opposition alternatives ahead of the November 7 election. These trends underpin trader consensus favoring National slightly over Labour for second place while assigning negligible probability to smaller parties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
59%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
61%
Labour
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