Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Something" at 61.5% for April, driven primarily by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, where President Trump's April 2 statement vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two-to-three weeks amid day 34 of US-Israel airstrikes raises risks of US forces entering Iran—a direct market trigger. WTI crude surged over 7% to $107 per barrel today on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, though far from the $200 threshold. The Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms, with any rate change (unlikely per 95% market odds after March hold) also qualifying; Cuban regime rhetoric persists without military action, while Epstein file disclosures from early 2026 have prompted overseas arrests but no US jailing yet. With 29 days remaining, these geopolitical flashpoints anchor elevated probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNothing Ever Happens: April
Nothing Ever Happens: April
Nothing
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
Nothing
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 апр. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US forces enter Iran
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_April.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Something" at 61.5% for April, driven primarily by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, where President Trump's April 2 statement vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two-to-three weeks amid day 34 of US-Israel airstrikes raises risks of US forces entering Iran—a direct market trigger. WTI crude surged over 7% to $107 per barrel today on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, though far from the $200 threshold. The Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms, with any rate change (unlikely per 95% market odds after March hold) also qualifying; Cuban regime rhetoric persists without military action, while Epstein file disclosures from early 2026 have prompted overseas arrests but no US jailing yet. With 29 days remaining, these geopolitical flashpoints anchor elevated probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US forces enter Iran
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_April.pdf
- US forces enter Iran
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_April.pdf
Открытие рынка: Apr 1, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$8,210Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US forces enter Iran
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_April.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Something" at 61.5% for April, driven primarily by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, where President Trump's April 2 statement vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two-to-three weeks amid day 34 of US-Israel airstrikes raises risks of US forces entering Iran—a direct market trigger. WTI crude surged over 7% to $107 per barrel today on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, though far from the $200 threshold. The Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms, with any rate change (unlikely per 95% market odds after March hold) also qualifying; Cuban regime rhetoric persists without military action, while Epstein file disclosures from early 2026 have prompted overseas arrests but no US jailing yet. With 29 days remaining, these geopolitical flashpoints anchor elevated probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US forces enter Iran
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_April.pdf
- US forces enter Iran
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_April.pdf
Объем
$8,210Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 1, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Something" at 61.5% for April, driven primarily by escalating US-Iran conflict tensions, where President Trump's April 2 statement vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two-to-three weeks amid day 34 of US-Israel airstrikes raises risks of US forces entering Iran—a direct market trigger. WTI crude surged over 7% to $107 per barrel today on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, though far from the $200 threshold. The Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC meeting looms, with any rate change (unlikely per 95% market odds after March hold) also qualifying; Cuban regime rhetoric persists without military action, while Epstein file disclosures from early 2026 have prompted overseas arrests but no US jailing yet. With 29 days remaining, these geopolitical flashpoints anchor elevated probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы