President Trump's approval ratings, stuck below 40% in recent Reuters/Ipsos and Marist polls amid the Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and inflation, have propelled Democrats to a roughly 5-point lead in generic congressional ballot averages. This dynamic echoes historical midterm patterns, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses since 1950, fueling trader consensus on a 73.5% implied probability for Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-November 2026 elections. Democratic gains in recent special elections and off-year races, alongside higher Republican retirements, amplify momentum, though GOP redistricting advantages in Virginia and Tennessee provide a Senate buffer; upcoming primaries loom as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$42,863 Объем
$42,863 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$42,863 Объем
$42,863 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfPresident Trump's approval ratings, stuck below 40% in recent Reuters/Ipsos and Marist polls amid the Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and inflation, have propelled Democrats to a roughly 5-point lead in generic congressional ballot averages. This dynamic echoes historical midterm patterns, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses since 1950, fueling trader consensus on a 73.5% implied probability for Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-November 2026 elections. Democratic gains in recent special elections and off-year races, alongside higher Republican retirements, amplify momentum, though GOP redistricting advantages in Virginia and Tennessee provide a Senate buffer; upcoming primaries loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$42,863Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfPresident Trump's approval ratings, stuck below 40% in recent Reuters/Ipsos and Marist polls amid the Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and inflation, have propelled Democrats to a roughly 5-point lead in generic congressional ballot averages. This dynamic echoes historical midterm patterns, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses since 1950, fueling trader consensus on a 73.5% implied probability for Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-November 2026 elections. Democratic gains in recent special elections and off-year races, alongside higher Republican retirements, amplify momentum, though GOP redistricting advantages in Virginia and Tennessee provide a Senate buffer; upcoming primaries loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Объем
$42,863Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's approval ratings, stuck below 40% in recent Reuters/Ipsos and Marist polls amid the Iran conflict, surging gas prices, and inflation, have propelled Democrats to a roughly 5-point lead in generic congressional ballot averages. This dynamic echoes historical midterm patterns, with the president's party averaging 26 House seat losses since 1950, fueling trader consensus on a 73.5% implied probability for Democrats securing 218+ House seats and 49+ Senate seats post-November 2026 elections. Democratic gains in recent special elections and off-year races, alongside higher Republican retirements, amplify momentum, though GOP redistricting advantages in Virginia and Tennessee provide a Senate buffer; upcoming primaries loom as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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