OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety priorities has anchored trader consensus around Anthropic going public first at 94.6% market-implied odds. Anthropic continues advancing its process, shifting its target to November after recent delays to showcase stronger third-quarter results, with annualized revenue already exceeding $65 billion and projected above $100 billion by year-end. This positions the Claude developer for a potential $2 trillion valuation IPO ahead of OpenAI’s revised 2027 timeline. Realistic risks to the current odds include sudden OpenAI acceleration if safety concerns ease or unexpected Anthropic setbacks from market volatility or regulatory scrutiny.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли IPO Anthropic или OpenAI первым?
Будет ли IPO Anthropic или OpenAI первым?
Anthropic
95% вероятность
$384,627 Объем
$384,627 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Anthropic
95% вероятность
$384,627 Объем
$384,627 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety priorities has anchored trader consensus around Anthropic going public first at 94.6% market-implied odds. Anthropic continues advancing its process, shifting its target to November after recent delays to showcase stronger third-quarter results, with annualized revenue already exceeding $65 billion and projected above $100 billion by year-end. This positions the Claude developer for a potential $2 trillion valuation IPO ahead of OpenAI’s revised 2027 timeline. Realistic risks to the current odds include sudden OpenAI acceleration if safety concerns ease or unexpected Anthropic setbacks from market volatility or regulatory scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Объем
$384,627Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety priorities has anchored trader consensus around Anthropic going public first at 94.6% market-implied odds. Anthropic continues advancing its process, shifting its target to November after recent delays to showcase stronger third-quarter results, with annualized revenue already exceeding $65 billion and projected above $100 billion by year-end. This positions the Claude developer for a potential $2 trillion valuation IPO ahead of OpenAI’s revised 2027 timeline. Realistic risks to the current odds include sudden OpenAI acceleration if safety concerns ease or unexpected Anthropic setbacks from market volatility or regulatory scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$384,627Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s September confirmation that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety priorities has anchored trader consensus around Anthropic going public first at 94.6% market-implied odds. Anthropic continues advancing its process, shifting its target to November after recent delays to showcase stronger third-quarter results, with annualized revenue already exceeding $65 billion and projected above $100 billion by year-end. This positions the Claude developer for a potential $2 trillion valuation IPO ahead of OpenAI’s revised 2027 timeline. Realistic risks to the current odds include sudden OpenAI acceleration if safety concerns ease or unexpected Anthropic setbacks from market volatility or regulatory scrutiny.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Состоится ли первичное публичное размещение акций Anthropic в ноябре 2026 года (ET)?
52%
Да
Anthropic или OpenAI: какая компания завершит IPO с большей рыночной капитализацией?
69%
Anthropic
Будет ли рыночная капитализация Anthropic составлять 600 млрд долларов США или больше к моменту закрытия рынка в день IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года?
96%
Да
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