Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 67.5% in Praggnanandhaa R versus Matthias Bluebaum during FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 11, driven by their Round 4 draw—where Bluebaum held firm with White—and Bluebaum's recent unbeaten streak, including draws against leader Javokhir Sindarov in Rounds 2 and 9 plus Andrey Esipenko in Round 10. Praggnanandhaa's 21% implied probability stems from his 43-point Elo edge (2741-2698), white pieces advantage, and early tournament win over Anish Giri, though tempered by losses to Giri in Round 8 and Sindarov in Round 10, dropping him outside the top three. Bluebaum's 9.5% reflects his lower rating and Black pieces in this double round-robin classical matchup amid tight standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIf Praggnanandhaa R wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Praggnanandhaa R wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a draw at 67.5% in Praggnanandhaa R versus Matthias Bluebaum during FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 11, driven by their Round 4 draw—where Bluebaum held firm with White—and Bluebaum's recent unbeaten streak, including draws against leader Javokhir Sindarov in Rounds 2 and 9 plus Andrey Esipenko in Round 10. Praggnanandhaa's 21% implied probability stems from his 43-point Elo edge (2741-2698), white pieces advantage, and early tournament win over Anish Giri, though tempered by losses to Giri in Round 8 and Sindarov in Round 10, dropping him outside the top three. Bluebaum's 9.5% reflects his lower rating and Black pieces in this double round-robin classical matchup amid tight standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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