No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$311,304 ปริมาณ
$311,304 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$311,304 ปริมาณ
$311,304 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$311,304วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$311,304วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or JPL currently threaten a 5 kt impact in 2026, with all catalogued close approaches through year-end passing at safe distances and most predicted events involving meter-scale bodies that disintegrate harmlessly. Baseline impact rates for 5–10 m objects capable of producing roughly 5 kt airbursts remain low, around a few percent annually based on historical flux data, though a statistically notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026 has drawn trader attention without producing any qualifying event to date. Ongoing surveys continue to reduce uncertainty by discovering and ruling out potential hazards, supporting the 72.5 % market-implied probability for no strike by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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