Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 81.5% odds across 1.10–1.29ºC bins, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.51ºC above pre-industrial. This positioning stems from ENSO-neutral conditions favored by NOAA through June (80% chance), dampening extremes after prior El Niño peaks, alongside stabilizing sea surface temperatures near records but with reduced atmospheric heat transfer. Preliminary daily anomalies indicate a slight April dip versus March's 0.53ºC excess over 1991–2020 norms, aligning with seasonal cooling patterns and model consensus. Traders await the full Copernicus bulletin in early May for final resolution, amid inherent forecast uncertainties from evolving ocean-atmosphere dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 35%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 8%
$135,739 ปริมาณ
$135,739 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
8%
1.15–1.19ºC
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
35%
1.25–1.29ºC
13%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 46%
1.20–1.24ºC 35%
1.25–1.29ºC 13%
1.10–1.14ºC 8%
$135,739 ปริมาณ
$135,739 ปริมาณ
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$30,152 ปริมาณ
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,508 ปริมาณ
8%
1.15–1.19ºC
$16,080 ปริมาณ
46%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,355 ปริมาณ
35%
1.25–1.29ºC
$29,392 ปริมาณ
13%
>1.29ºC
$16,253 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 81.5% odds across 1.10–1.29ºC bins, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.51ºC above pre-industrial. This positioning stems from ENSO-neutral conditions favored by NOAA through June (80% chance), dampening extremes after prior El Niño peaks, alongside stabilizing sea surface temperatures near records but with reduced atmospheric heat transfer. Preliminary daily anomalies indicate a slight April dip versus March's 0.53ºC excess over 1991–2020 norms, aligning with seasonal cooling patterns and model consensus. Traders await the full Copernicus bulletin in early May for final resolution, amid inherent forecast uncertainties from evolving ocean-atmosphere dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$135,739วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 81.5% odds across 1.10–1.29ºC bins, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.51ºC above pre-industrial. This positioning stems from ENSO-neutral conditions favored by NOAA through June (80% chance), dampening extremes after prior El Niño peaks, alongside stabilizing sea surface temperatures near records but with reduced atmospheric heat transfer. Preliminary daily anomalies indicate a slight April dip versus March's 0.53ºC excess over 1991–2020 norms, aligning with seasonal cooling patterns and model consensus. Traders await the full Copernicus bulletin in early May for final resolution, amid inherent forecast uncertainties from evolving ocean-atmosphere dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$135,739วันสิ้นสุด
May 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46.5% implied probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 81.5% odds across 1.10–1.29ºC bins, reflecting Copernicus ERA5 data through mid-April showing moderation from March's fourth-warmest ranking at 1.51ºC above pre-industrial. This positioning stems from ENSO-neutral conditions favored by NOAA through June (80% chance), dampening extremes after prior El Niño peaks, alongside stabilizing sea surface temperatures near records but with reduced atmospheric heat transfer. Preliminary daily anomalies indicate a slight April dip versus March's 0.53ºC excess over 1991–2020 norms, aligning with seasonal cooling patterns and model consensus. Traders await the full Copernicus bulletin in early May for final resolution, amid inherent forecast uncertainties from evolving ocean-atmosphere dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย