The special election to fill the vacancy left by the April 2026 death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured a crowded all-party field on the July 28 ballot, with Democrats Marcye Scott and Everton Blair as the leading contenders alongside Republican Caesar Gonzales and several minor candidates. Georgia’s election rules require a majority for an outright win and trigger a runoff otherwise, and the heavily Democratic district composition made a GOP victory improbable. Pre-election developments, including candidate qualification by the May 13 deadline and the absence of a dominant frontrunner consolidating support, shaped trader assessments of whether vote fragmentation would prevent any candidate from clearing 50 percent. The 61.2 percent implied probability for an outright winner reflected the wisdom of crowds weighing these dynamics against historical patterns in similar special elections.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว61% โอกาส
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Nov 3, 2026
61% โอกาส
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Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.The special election to fill the vacancy left by the April 2026 death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured a crowded all-party field on the July 28 ballot, with Democrats Marcye Scott and Everton Blair as the leading contenders alongside Republican Caesar Gonzales and several minor candidates. Georgia’s election rules require a majority for an outright win and trigger a runoff otherwise, and the heavily Democratic district composition made a GOP victory improbable. Pre-election developments, including candidate qualification by the May 13 deadline and the absence of a dominant frontrunner consolidating support, shaped trader assessments of whether vote fragmentation would prevent any candidate from clearing 50 percent. The 61.2 percent implied probability for an outright winner reflected the wisdom of crowds weighing these dynamics against historical patterns in similar special elections.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$478วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.The special election to fill the vacancy left by the April 2026 death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured a crowded all-party field on the July 28 ballot, with Democrats Marcye Scott and Everton Blair as the leading contenders alongside Republican Caesar Gonzales and several minor candidates. Georgia’s election rules require a majority for an outright win and trigger a runoff otherwise, and the heavily Democratic district composition made a GOP victory improbable. Pre-election developments, including candidate qualification by the May 13 deadline and the absence of a dominant frontrunner consolidating support, shaped trader assessments of whether vote fragmentation would prevent any candidate from clearing 50 percent. The 61.2 percent implied probability for an outright winner reflected the wisdom of crowds weighing these dynamics against historical patterns in similar special elections.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-13 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-13 House election.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$478วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The special election to fill the vacancy left by the April 2026 death of longtime Democratic incumbent David Scott featured a crowded all-party field on the July 28 ballot, with Democrats Marcye Scott and Everton Blair as the leading contenders alongside Republican Caesar Gonzales and several minor candidates. Georgia’s election rules require a majority for an outright win and trigger a runoff otherwise, and the heavily Democratic district composition made a GOP victory improbable. Pre-election developments, including candidate qualification by the May 13 deadline and the absence of a dominant frontrunner consolidating support, shaped trader assessments of whether vote fragmentation would prevent any candidate from clearing 50 percent. The 61.2 percent implied probability for an outright winner reflected the wisdom of crowds weighing these dynamics against historical patterns in similar special elections.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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