**Trader sentiment for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 18 centers on the narrow 29–31 °C range, with 30 °C holding the highest implied probability at 35.5 %.** Short-range numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional ensembles) currently converge on a daytime maximum near 30 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean. These conditions favor mostly sunny skies and light northerly flow that moderates the urban heat island effect. Recent observational trends from mid-August 2026 show daily highs fluctuating between 28–32 °C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 28–30 °C (with occasional peaks near 32–34 °C). Subtle differences among leading outcomes arise from small variations in forecast timing of any weak sea-breeze circulation or minor cloud increases, which can shift the peak by 1 °C. No major synoptic shift—such as an incoming trough or heat advection event—is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the inherent uncertainty range of 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely be the next catalyst for any re-pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
30°C 40%
31°C 32%
29°C 22%
32°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
10%
28°C
7%
29°C
22%
30°C
40%
31°C
32%
32°C
11%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
4%
30°C 40%
31°C 32%
29°C 22%
32°C 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$153 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$10 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$15 ปริมาณ
4%
27°C
$49 ปริมาณ
10%
28°C
$33 ปริมาณ
7%
29°C
$29 ปริมาณ
22%
30°C
$174 ปริมาณ
40%
31°C
$102 ปริมาณ
32%
32°C
$64 ปริมาณ
11%
33°C
$35 ปริมาณ
4%
34°C or higher
$15 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 18 centers on the narrow 29–31 °C range, with 30 °C holding the highest implied probability at 35.5 %.** Short-range numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional ensembles) currently converge on a daytime maximum near 30 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean. These conditions favor mostly sunny skies and light northerly flow that moderates the urban heat island effect.
Recent observational trends from mid-August 2026 show daily highs fluctuating between 28–32 °C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 28–30 °C (with occasional peaks near 32–34 °C). Subtle differences among leading outcomes arise from small variations in forecast timing of any weak sea-breeze circulation or minor cloud increases, which can shift the peak by 1 °C. No major synoptic shift—such as an incoming trough or heat advection event—is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the inherent uncertainty range of 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely be the next catalyst for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$581วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 18 centers on the narrow 29–31 °C range, with 30 °C holding the highest implied probability at 35.5 %.** Short-range numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional ensembles) currently converge on a daytime maximum near 30 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean. These conditions favor mostly sunny skies and light northerly flow that moderates the urban heat island effect.
Recent observational trends from mid-August 2026 show daily highs fluctuating between 28–32 °C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 28–30 °C (with occasional peaks near 32–34 °C). Subtle differences among leading outcomes arise from small variations in forecast timing of any weak sea-breeze circulation or minor cloud increases, which can shift the peak by 1 °C. No major synoptic shift—such as an incoming trough or heat advection event—is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the inherent uncertainty range of 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely be the next catalyst for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$581วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Istanbul’s highest temperature on August 18 centers on the narrow 29–31 °C range, with 30 °C holding the highest implied probability at 35.5 %.** Short-range numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, GFS, and regional ensembles) currently converge on a daytime maximum near 30 °C under typical late-summer high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean. These conditions favor mostly sunny skies and light northerly flow that moderates the urban heat island effect. Recent observational trends from mid-August 2026 show daily highs fluctuating between 28–32 °C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 28–30 °C (with occasional peaks near 32–34 °C). Subtle differences among leading outcomes arise from small variations in forecast timing of any weak sea-breeze circulation or minor cloud increases, which can shift the peak by 1 °C. No major synoptic shift—such as an incoming trough or heat advection event—is indicated in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities tightly clustered and reflecting the inherent uncertainty range of 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model guidance over the next 24–48 hours will likely be the next catalyst for any re-pricing.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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