**Forecast consensus for New York City on August 4, 2026, centers on a daily high near 84°F, aligning with the market’s leading 84-85°F bin at 35% implied probability.** Extended outlooks from timeanddate and similar services show an 84/69°F forecast under overcast skies with light winds around 6 mph, while seasonal guidance from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center favors above-average August temperatures overall. Key differentiating factors include the strength of southerly flow advecting warmer air masses versus cloud cover and any scattered showers that could suppress peak heating. Model runs vary modestly in the extent of afternoon clearing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the spread across the 82–87°F outcomes that together hold over 80% of the probability. Sea-breeze influences and urban heat-island effects add further small-scale uncertainty for the Central Park or LaGuardia reporting stations used for resolution. With the event less than 24 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble guidance that keep the most likely range tightly clustered around the long-term early-August normal of roughly 83°F.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in NYC on August 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 4?
84-85°F 35%
82-83°F 26%
86-87°F 22%
80-81°F 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 4, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
35%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
4%
92°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 35%
82-83°F 26%
86-87°F 22%
80-81°F 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 4, 2026
73°F or below
$5 ปริมาณ
1%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
78-79°F
$15 ปริมาณ
4%
80-81°F
$18 ปริมาณ
9%
82-83°F
$113 ปริมาณ
26%
84-85°F
$23 ปริมาณ
35%
86-87°F
$41 ปริมาณ
22%
88-89°F
$75 ปริมาณ
7%
90-91°F
$15 ปริมาณ
4%
92°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for New York City on August 4, 2026, centers on a daily high near 84°F, aligning with the market’s leading 84-85°F bin at 35% implied probability.** Extended outlooks from timeanddate and similar services show an 84/69°F forecast under overcast skies with light winds around 6 mph, while seasonal guidance from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center favors above-average August temperatures overall.
Key differentiating factors include the strength of southerly flow advecting warmer air masses versus cloud cover and any scattered showers that could suppress peak heating. Model runs vary modestly in the extent of afternoon clearing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the spread across the 82–87°F outcomes that together hold over 80% of the probability. Sea-breeze influences and urban heat-island effects add further small-scale uncertainty for the Central Park or LaGuardia reporting stations used for resolution.
With the event less than 24 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble guidance that keep the most likely range tightly clustered around the long-term early-August normal of roughly 83°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$305วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus for New York City on August 4, 2026, centers on a daily high near 84°F, aligning with the market’s leading 84-85°F bin at 35% implied probability.** Extended outlooks from timeanddate and similar services show an 84/69°F forecast under overcast skies with light winds around 6 mph, while seasonal guidance from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center favors above-average August temperatures overall.
Key differentiating factors include the strength of southerly flow advecting warmer air masses versus cloud cover and any scattered showers that could suppress peak heating. Model runs vary modestly in the extent of afternoon clearing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the spread across the 82–87°F outcomes that together hold over 80% of the probability. Sea-breeze influences and urban heat-island effects add further small-scale uncertainty for the Central Park or LaGuardia reporting stations used for resolution.
With the event less than 24 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble guidance that keep the most likely range tightly clustered around the long-term early-August normal of roughly 83°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$305วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus for New York City on August 4, 2026, centers on a daily high near 84°F, aligning with the market’s leading 84-85°F bin at 35% implied probability.** Extended outlooks from timeanddate and similar services show an 84/69°F forecast under overcast skies with light winds around 6 mph, while seasonal guidance from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center favors above-average August temperatures overall. Key differentiating factors include the strength of southerly flow advecting warmer air masses versus cloud cover and any scattered showers that could suppress peak heating. Model runs vary modestly in the extent of afternoon clearing and boundary-layer moisture, producing the spread across the 82–87°F outcomes that together hold over 80% of the probability. Sea-breeze influences and urban heat-island effects add further small-scale uncertainty for the Central Park or LaGuardia reporting stations used for resolution. With the event less than 24 hours away, traders are weighting the most recent National Weather Service point forecasts and ensemble guidance that keep the most likely range tightly clustered around the long-term early-August normal of roughly 83°F.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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