**Persistent marine layer influence and a compressing inversion are anchoring San Francisco's September 18 maximum near the low 70s.** Official NWS and model guidance indicate a high of 67–69°F under partly cloudy skies with west winds strengthening to 10–20 mph, as a departing upper-level low allows modest ridging while the cool Pacific keeps onshore flow dominant. This setup aligns with climatological September averages around 70°F and explains the market's heavy weighting toward 68–73°F outcomes (combined ~92.5% implied probability). Traders appear to discount higher readings absent stronger offshore flow or clear-sky heating, with only minimal odds on 74°F+. Updated afternoon observations or revised model runs could refine the exact maximum before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 18?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 18?
70-71°F 41%
72-73°F 27%
68-69°F 24%
74-75°F 4%
ใหม่
$12,548 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,548 ปริมาณ
Sep 18, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
41%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 41%
72-73°F 27%
68-69°F 24%
74-75°F 4%
ใหม่
$12,548 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$12,548 ปริมาณ
Sep 18, 2026
63°F or below
$201 ปริมาณ
<1%
64-65°F
$30 ปริมาณ
<1%
66-67°F
$414 ปริมาณ
<1%
68-69°F
$3,349 ปริมาณ
24%
70-71°F
$1,241 ปริมาณ
41%
72-73°F
$3,067 ปริมาณ
27%
74-75°F
$750 ปริมาณ
4%
76-77°F
$503 ปริมาณ
2%
78-79°F
$259 ปริมาณ
1%
80-81°F
$1,531 ปริมาณ
<1%
82°F or higher
$1,202 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent marine layer influence and a compressing inversion are anchoring San Francisco's September 18 maximum near the low 70s.** Official NWS and model guidance indicate a high of 67–69°F under partly cloudy skies with west winds strengthening to 10–20 mph, as a departing upper-level low allows modest ridging while the cool Pacific keeps onshore flow dominant. This setup aligns with climatological September averages around 70°F and explains the market's heavy weighting toward 68–73°F outcomes (combined ~92.5% implied probability). Traders appear to discount higher readings absent stronger offshore flow or clear-sky heating, with only minimal odds on 74°F+. Updated afternoon observations or revised model runs could refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 16, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,548วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 7:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent marine layer influence and a compressing inversion are anchoring San Francisco's September 18 maximum near the low 70s.** Official NWS and model guidance indicate a high of 67–69°F under partly cloudy skies with west winds strengthening to 10–20 mph, as a departing upper-level low allows modest ridging while the cool Pacific keeps onshore flow dominant. This setup aligns with climatological September averages around 70°F and explains the market's heavy weighting toward 68–73°F outcomes (combined ~92.5% implied probability). Traders appear to discount higher readings absent stronger offshore flow or clear-sky heating, with only minimal odds on 74°F+. Updated afternoon observations or revised model runs could refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,548วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 16, 2026, 7:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent marine layer influence and a compressing inversion are anchoring San Francisco's September 18 maximum near the low 70s.** Official NWS and model guidance indicate a high of 67–69°F under partly cloudy skies with west winds strengthening to 10–20 mph, as a departing upper-level low allows modest ridging while the cool Pacific keeps onshore flow dominant. This setup aligns with climatological September averages around 70°F and explains the market's heavy weighting toward 68–73°F outcomes (combined ~92.5% implied probability). Traders appear to discount higher readings absent stronger offshore flow or clear-sky heating, with only minimal odds on 74°F+. Updated afternoon observations or revised model runs could refine the exact maximum before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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