Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to an 18°C low in London on September 14 because the latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate mild overnight conditions driven by a southerly airflow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup keeps minimum temperatures above the long-term September average of roughly 13°C recorded at central London stations. Recent model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with light winds and high humidity further suppressing temperature drops. Resolution hinges on official observations from sites such as Heathrow, where any unexpected clear-sky development could push readings lower and shift the distribution toward the 17°C outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in London on September 14?
Lowest temperature in London on September 14?
18°C 55%
19°C 33%
17°C 12%
16°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
12%
18°C
55%
19°C
33%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 55%
19°C 33%
17°C 12%
16°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 14, 2026
12°C or below
$153 ปริมาณ
<1%
13°C
$121 ปริมาณ
<1%
14°C
$20 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$111 ปริมาณ
2%
16°C
$230 ปริมาณ
5%
17°C
$3,058 ปริมาณ
12%
18°C
$904 ปริมาณ
55%
19°C
$1,029 ปริมาณ
33%
20°C
$20 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$43 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C or higher
$60 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to an 18°C low in London on September 14 because the latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate mild overnight conditions driven by a southerly airflow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup keeps minimum temperatures above the long-term September average of roughly 13°C recorded at central London stations. Recent model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with light winds and high humidity further suppressing temperature drops. Resolution hinges on official observations from sites such as Heathrow, where any unexpected clear-sky development could push readings lower and shift the distribution toward the 17°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,748วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to an 18°C low in London on September 14 because the latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate mild overnight conditions driven by a southerly airflow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup keeps minimum temperatures above the long-term September average of roughly 13°C recorded at central London stations. Recent model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with light winds and high humidity further suppressing temperature drops. Resolution hinges on official observations from sites such as Heathrow, where any unexpected clear-sky development could push readings lower and shift the distribution toward the 17°C outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,748วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Traders are assigning the highest implied probability to an 18°C low in London on September 14 because the latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate mild overnight conditions driven by a southerly airflow and persistent cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This setup keeps minimum temperatures above the long-term September average of roughly 13°C recorded at central London stations. Recent model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with light winds and high humidity further suppressing temperature drops. Resolution hinges on official observations from sites such as Heathrow, where any unexpected clear-sky development could push readings lower and shift the distribution toward the 17°C outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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