PAN leads the implied probability for second place in Mexico’s June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election because repeated 2026 national polls place it ahead of other opposition parties, typically in the 12–18% range behind Morena’s 39–49% first-place standing. The PAN’s decision in late 2025 to contest the race independently after years of alliances with the PRI has kept its brand distinct, while local structures and name recognition in key states sustain its edge over the PRI and Movimiento Ciudadano. The PRI and MC register lower and more variable support in the same surveys, reflecting vote fragmentation on the opposition side and the absence of a unified front. Morena’s governing coalition continues to consolidate the largest share, leaving the contest for runner-up status among the remaining parties largely stable through the most recent polling cycle.