**Recent polling and seat projections indicate that while the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads in popular vote support heading into the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, its path to a majority (requiring 64 of 125 seats in the National Assembly) remains narrow.** Latest surveys from Léger and Pallas Data place the PQ at approximately 29% among decided voters, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) and Québec solidaire (QS) holding smaller shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality in most simulations (around 44–48 seats on average), but with substantial ranges that rarely reach majority territory due to vote fragmentation across five viable parties and high undecided rates (over 40% in recent polls). The PQ benefits from strong francophone support, yet the split among federalist voters between the CAQ and PLQ, combined with regional competition, favors minority outcomes. Recent campaign developments, including CAQ gains tied to trade negotiations and the PQ’s decision to defer any sovereignty referendum until after 2029, have not shifted the underlying dynamics enough to alter majority expectations. Trader consensus reflected in the 73% probability on “No” aligns with these structural barriers in a multi-party contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว26% โอกาส
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Oct 5, 2026
26% โอกาส
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Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections indicate that while the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads in popular vote support heading into the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, its path to a majority (requiring 64 of 125 seats in the National Assembly) remains narrow.**
Latest surveys from Léger and Pallas Data place the PQ at approximately 29% among decided voters, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) and Québec solidaire (QS) holding smaller shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality in most simulations (around 44–48 seats on average), but with substantial ranges that rarely reach majority territory due to vote fragmentation across five viable parties and high undecided rates (over 40% in recent polls).
The PQ benefits from strong francophone support, yet the split among federalist voters between the CAQ and PLQ, combined with regional competition, favors minority outcomes. Recent campaign developments, including CAQ gains tied to trade negotiations and the PQ’s decision to defer any sovereignty referendum until after 2029, have not shifted the underlying dynamics enough to alter majority expectations. Trader consensus reflected in the 73% probability on “No” aligns with these structural barriers in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$668วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections indicate that while the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads in popular vote support heading into the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, its path to a majority (requiring 64 of 125 seats in the National Assembly) remains narrow.**
Latest surveys from Léger and Pallas Data place the PQ at approximately 29% among decided voters, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) and Québec solidaire (QS) holding smaller shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality in most simulations (around 44–48 seats on average), but with substantial ranges that rarely reach majority territory due to vote fragmentation across five viable parties and high undecided rates (over 40% in recent polls).
The PQ benefits from strong francophone support, yet the split among federalist voters between the CAQ and PLQ, combined with regional competition, favors minority outcomes. Recent campaign developments, including CAQ gains tied to trade negotiations and the PQ’s decision to defer any sovereignty referendum until after 2029, have not shifted the underlying dynamics enough to alter majority expectations. Trader consensus reflected in the 73% probability on “No” aligns with these structural barriers in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$668วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and seat projections indicate that while the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads in popular vote support heading into the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, its path to a majority (requiring 64 of 125 seats in the National Assembly) remains narrow.** Latest surveys from Léger and Pallas Data place the PQ at approximately 29% among decided voters, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) and Québec solidaire (QS) holding smaller shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada and The Writ project the PQ winning a plurality in most simulations (around 44–48 seats on average), but with substantial ranges that rarely reach majority territory due to vote fragmentation across five viable parties and high undecided rates (over 40% in recent polls). The PQ benefits from strong francophone support, yet the split among federalist voters between the CAQ and PLQ, combined with regional competition, favors minority outcomes. Recent campaign developments, including CAQ gains tied to trade negotiations and the PQ’s decision to defer any sovereignty referendum until after 2029, have not shifted the underlying dynamics enough to alter majority expectations. Trader consensus reflected in the 73% probability on “No” aligns with these structural barriers in a multi-party contest.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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