The European Central Bank’s data-dependent approach has shifted toward tighter policy following the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices, which has lifted 2026 headline inflation expectations to around 2.7% in recent surveys while core measures show second-round risks. Economists polled by Reuters and Bloomberg now project at least one 25-basis-point deposit-rate increase this year, with futures markets assigning near-certainty to a June move that would lift the rate from its current 2.00–2.15% level. This pricing reflects the Governing Council’s repeated emphasis on monitoring incoming inflation data and its willingness to act if pressures persist, reversing earlier expectations of further easing. Trader consensus at 99.3% for a hike in 2026 rests on these verified developments, though sustained declines in oil and gas prices or weaker-than-expected growth could still alter the path at subsequent meetings.