Trader consensus for the June 2026 U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit settling in the 70-80 billion range reflects the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau release, which showed a $73.3 billion shortfall. Imports fell 1.8 percent to $388 billion, outpacing a 0.9 percent drop in exports to $314.7 billion, narrowing the gap from May’s revised $77.6 billion. This outcome aligns with expectations after the prior month’s widening and follows a broader first-half trend of moderation from earlier tariff-related front-loading. The 100 percent market-implied probability embeds high confidence in the official figure, yet an unrevised data anomaly or late seasonal adjustment could still shift resolution outside the band.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update70-80B 100.0%
<50B <1%
50-60B <1%
60-70B <1%
$15,307 Vol.
$15,307 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
No
50-60B
No
60-70B
No
70-80B
Yes
80-90B
No
90-100B
No
100B+
No
70-80B 100.0%
<50B <1%
50-60B <1%
60-70B <1%
$15,307 Vol.
$15,307 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
<50B
$407 Vol.
No
50-60B
$1,240 Vol.
No
60-70B
$1,023 Vol.
No
70-80B
$9,843 Vol.
Yes
80-90B
$1,058 Vol.
No
90-100B
$1,181 Vol.
No
100B+
$556 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus for the June 2026 U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit settling in the 70-80 billion range reflects the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau release, which showed a $73.3 billion shortfall. Imports fell 1.8 percent to $388 billion, outpacing a 0.9 percent drop in exports to $314.7 billion, narrowing the gap from May’s revised $77.6 billion. This outcome aligns with expectations after the prior month’s widening and follows a broader first-half trend of moderation from earlier tariff-related front-loading. The 100 percent market-implied probability embeds high confidence in the official figure, yet an unrevised data anomaly or late seasonal adjustment could still shift resolution outside the band.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$15,307Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus for the June 2026 U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit settling in the 70-80 billion range reflects the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau release, which showed a $73.3 billion shortfall. Imports fell 1.8 percent to $388 billion, outpacing a 0.9 percent drop in exports to $314.7 billion, narrowing the gap from May’s revised $77.6 billion. This outcome aligns with expectations after the prior month’s widening and follows a broader first-half trend of moderation from earlier tariff-related front-loading. The 100 percent market-implied probability embeds high confidence in the official figure, yet an unrevised data anomaly or late seasonal adjustment could still shift resolution outside the band.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$15,307Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Na-propose ang outcome: No
Walang dispute
Pinal na outcome: No
Trader consensus for the June 2026 U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit settling in the 70-80 billion range reflects the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau release, which showed a $73.3 billion shortfall. Imports fell 1.8 percent to $388 billion, outpacing a 0.9 percent drop in exports to $314.7 billion, narrowing the gap from May’s revised $77.6 billion. This outcome aligns with expectations after the prior month’s widening and follows a broader first-half trend of moderation from earlier tariff-related front-loading. The 100 percent market-implied probability embeds high confidence in the official figure, yet an unrevised data anomaly or late seasonal adjustment could still shift resolution outside the band.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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