USGS data records four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster—7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 northwest of Ternate, Indonesia on April 1—driving trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 at 79.5% implied probability. This uptick in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones aligns with the global historical average of about 15 such events annually, placing the year on pace for roughly 7-8 by mid-year under Poisson-distributed seismic activity, though clustering from stress transfer can elevate short-term rates. With 75 days remaining, ongoing USGS catalog updates and real-time monitoring will refine probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi30 Haziran'a kadar kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem olacak?
30 Haziran'a kadar kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem olacak?
8+ 80%
7 17%
6 3.4%
$1,817,524 Hac.
$1,817,524 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
6
3%
7
17%
8+
80%
8+ 80%
7 17%
6 3.4%
$1,817,524 Hac.
$1,817,524 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
6
$118,438 Hac.
3%
7
$277,673 Hac.
17%
8+
$537,289 Hac.
80%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data records four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster—7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 northwest of Ternate, Indonesia on April 1—driving trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 at 79.5% implied probability. This uptick in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones aligns with the global historical average of about 15 such events annually, placing the year on pace for roughly 7-8 by mid-year under Poisson-distributed seismic activity, though clustering from stress transfer can elevate short-term rates. With 75 days remaining, ongoing USGS catalog updates and real-time monitoring will refine probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Hacim
$1,817,524Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data records four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster—7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 northwest of Ternate, Indonesia on April 1—driving trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 at 79.5% implied probability. This uptick in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones aligns with the global historical average of about 15 such events annually, placing the year on pace for roughly 7-8 by mid-year under Poisson-distributed seismic activity, though clustering from stress transfer can elevate short-term rates. With 75 days remaining, ongoing USGS catalog updates and real-time monitoring will refine probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Hacim
$1,817,524Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...USGS data records four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster—7.5 offshore Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 northwest of Ternate, Indonesia on April 1—driving trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 at 79.5% implied probability. This uptick in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones aligns with the global historical average of about 15 such events annually, placing the year on pace for roughly 7-8 by mid-year under Poisson-distributed seismic activity, though clustering from stress transfer can elevate short-term rates. With 75 days remaining, ongoing USGS catalog updates and real-time monitoring will refine probabilities amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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