Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14–16 (27.5%) and 11–13 (26%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, driven by four confirmed events year-to-date per USGS catalogs, including a late-March cluster of three in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: M7.5 Tonga on March 24, M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 Indonesia on April 1. This pace—roughly one every 25 days—projects about 14 total for the year, matching the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes annually, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and potential aftershock sequences differentiate outcomes. USGS monitoring continues without reliable global forecasts; heightened activity in Indonesia or Japan could tip toward higher tallies, while lulls elsewhere favor lower counts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem var?
2026 'da kaç tane 7.0 veya üzeri deprem var?
14–16 28%
11–13 27%
17–19 22%
20+ 14.6%
$1,232,513 Hac.
$1,232,513 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
<5
<1%
5–7
1%
8–10
6%
11–13
27%
14–16
28%
17–19
22%
20+
15%
14–16 28%
11–13 27%
17–19 22%
20+ 14.6%
$1,232,513 Hac.
$1,232,513 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
<5
$200,798 Hac.
<1%
5–7
$67,358 Hac.
1%
8–10
$123,947 Hac.
6%
11–13
$403,899 Hac.
27%
14–16
$176,930 Hac.
28%
17–19
$202,106 Hac.
22%
20+
$57,474 Hac.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14–16 (27.5%) and 11–13 (26%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, driven by four confirmed events year-to-date per USGS catalogs, including a late-March cluster of three in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: M7.5 Tonga on March 24, M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 Indonesia on April 1. This pace—roughly one every 25 days—projects about 14 total for the year, matching the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes annually, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and potential aftershock sequences differentiate outcomes. USGS monitoring continues without reliable global forecasts; heightened activity in Indonesia or Japan could tip toward higher tallies, while lulls elsewhere favor lower counts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Hacim
$1,232,513Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14–16 (27.5%) and 11–13 (26%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, driven by four confirmed events year-to-date per USGS catalogs, including a late-March cluster of three in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: M7.5 Tonga on March 24, M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 Indonesia on April 1. This pace—roughly one every 25 days—projects about 14 total for the year, matching the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes annually, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and potential aftershock sequences differentiate outcomes. USGS monitoring continues without reliable global forecasts; heightened activity in Indonesia or Japan could tip toward higher tallies, while lulls elsewhere favor lower counts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Hacim
$1,232,513Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14–16 (27.5%) and 11–13 (26%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, driven by four confirmed events year-to-date per USGS catalogs, including a late-March cluster of three in Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: M7.5 Tonga on March 24, M7.3 Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 Indonesia on April 1. This pace—roughly one every 25 days—projects about 14 total for the year, matching the long-term global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes annually, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and potential aftershock sequences differentiate outcomes. USGS monitoring continues without reliable global forecasts; heightened activity in Indonesia or Japan could tip toward higher tallies, while lulls elsewhere favor lower counts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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