Traders assign a 77.5% implied probability to "No" on Nicolás Maduro being found guilty of all counts in his Southern District of New York narcoterrorism case, driven by the proceedings remaining in pre-trial phase after his January 2026 US military capture in Caracas and subsequent not guilty plea alongside wife Cilia Flores. A March 26 federal court hearing featured Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejecting dismissal requests while scrutinizing sanctions that block Venezuelan funds for defense counsel, highlighting procedural hurdles that could delay trial or prompt plea negotiations—consistent with the narcoterrorism statute's track record, where 31 of 83 charged have pleaded guilty to lesser offenses rather than facing full trial convictions. No trial date is scheduled, leaving room for legal challenges to prevent unanimous guilty verdicts.