Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas, which commenced in April despite first units rolling off the line in February. Elon Musk's recent confirmations target sub-$30,000 consumer pricing before 2027, but traders factor in historically slow initial scaling—"agonizingly slow," per Musk—coupled with stringent regulatory hurdles for a steering wheel- and pedal-less autonomous vehicle requiring unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) approvals in key states like Texas and California. No retail sales have materialized amid ongoing validation testing and geo-fenced mapping; upcoming Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory milestones could shift sentiment if production accelerates or barriers ease.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$32,391 Hac.
$32,391 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$32,391 Hac.
$32,391 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas, which commenced in April despite first units rolling off the line in February. Elon Musk's recent confirmations target sub-$30,000 consumer pricing before 2027, but traders factor in historically slow initial scaling—"agonizingly slow," per Musk—coupled with stringent regulatory hurdles for a steering wheel- and pedal-less autonomous vehicle requiring unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) approvals in key states like Texas and California. No retail sales have materialized amid ongoing validation testing and geo-fenced mapping; upcoming Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory milestones could shift sentiment if production accelerates or barriers ease.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Hacim
$32,391Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas, which commenced in April despite first units rolling off the line in February. Elon Musk's recent confirmations target sub-$30,000 consumer pricing before 2027, but traders factor in historically slow initial scaling—"agonizingly slow," per Musk—coupled with stringent regulatory hurdles for a steering wheel- and pedal-less autonomous vehicle requiring unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) approvals in key states like Texas and California. No retail sales have materialized amid ongoing validation testing and geo-fenced mapping; upcoming Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory milestones could shift sentiment if production accelerates or barriers ease.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$32,391Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by the vehicle's nascent production ramp at Giga Texas, which commenced in April despite first units rolling off the line in February. Elon Musk's recent confirmations target sub-$30,000 consumer pricing before 2027, but traders factor in historically slow initial scaling—"agonizingly slow," per Musk—coupled with stringent regulatory hurdles for a steering wheel- and pedal-less autonomous vehicle requiring unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) approvals in key states like Texas and California. No retail sales have materialized amid ongoing validation testing and geo-fenced mapping; upcoming Q2 earnings and FSD regulatory milestones could shift sentiment if production accelerates or barriers ease.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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