Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability to hold the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's near-top Elo ratings—often 1503-1504—and the company's explosive 2026 release cadence of major updates every two weeks since January, including a confirmed internal "Mythos" model surpassing public versions but withheld for safety. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview recently claimed the #1 spot at 1505 Elo in early April leaderboards, bolstering its 16.5% odds amid DeepMind's compute advantages and full-stack control. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants trail at lower rankings, capping it at 6%, while xAI's Grok hype fades to 5.9% absent June-bound announcements; upcoming catalysts include potential Claude 5 or Gemini iterations before quarter-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiAntropic 59%
Google 17%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 5.9%
$1,263,316 Hac.
$1,263,316 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Antropic
59%
17%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
6%
Meituan
3%
Z.ai
3%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Microsoft
1%
ByteDance
1%
Mistral
1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Antropic 59%
Google 17%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 5.9%
$1,263,316 Hac.
$1,263,316 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Antropic
$20,010 Hac.
59%
$11,266 Hac.
17%
OpenAI
$44,651 Hac.
6%
xAI
$9,442 Hac.
6%
Meituan
$225,256 Hac.
3%
Z.ai
$381,517 Hac.
3%
Meta
$2,465 Hac.
2%
Alibaba
$128,757 Hac.
1%
DeepSeek
$179,404 Hac.
1%
Moonshot
$198,461 Hac.
1%
Microsoft
$2,365 Hac.
1%
ByteDance
$5,363 Hac.
1%
Mistral
$45,988 Hac.
1%
Amazon
$5,556 Hac.
<1%
Baidu
$2,816 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability to hold the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's near-top Elo ratings—often 1503-1504—and the company's explosive 2026 release cadence of major updates every two weeks since January, including a confirmed internal "Mythos" model surpassing public versions but withheld for safety. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview recently claimed the #1 spot at 1505 Elo in early April leaderboards, bolstering its 16.5% odds amid DeepMind's compute advantages and full-stack control. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants trail at lower rankings, capping it at 6%, while xAI's Grok hype fades to 5.9% absent June-bound announcements; upcoming catalysts include potential Claude 5 or Gemini iterations before quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Hacim
$1,263,316Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability to hold the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's near-top Elo ratings—often 1503-1504—and the company's explosive 2026 release cadence of major updates every two weeks since January, including a confirmed internal "Mythos" model surpassing public versions but withheld for safety. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview recently claimed the #1 spot at 1505 Elo in early April leaderboards, bolstering its 16.5% odds amid DeepMind's compute advantages and full-stack control. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants trail at lower rankings, capping it at 6%, while xAI's Grok hype fades to 5.9% absent June-bound announcements; upcoming catalysts include potential Claude 5 or Gemini iterations before quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Hacim
$1,263,316Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability to hold the top AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena (Style Control On) leaderboard by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's near-top Elo ratings—often 1503-1504—and the company's explosive 2026 release cadence of major updates every two weeks since January, including a confirmed internal "Mythos" model surpassing public versions but withheld for safety. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview recently claimed the #1 spot at 1505 Elo in early April leaderboards, bolstering its 16.5% odds amid DeepMind's compute advantages and full-stack control. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants trail at lower rankings, capping it at 6%, while xAI's Grok hype fades to 5.9% absent June-bound announcements; upcoming catalysts include potential Claude 5 or Gemini iterations before quarter-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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