Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro claimed #1 in early April benchmarks. Claude excels in coding (1549 Elo) and multi-task reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in recent head-to-head evaluations, while Gemini leads overall text and GPQA scores. Anthropic's Claude Mythos preview, released around April 8, demonstrated benchmark leaps but remains internal. Absent confirmed rival releases—like potential GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates—traders expect leaderboard stability, though volatility persists in this rapidly evolving large language model landscape.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiAnthropic 90%
OpenAI 5.5%
Google 3.3%
DeepSeek <1%
$65,657 Hac.
$65,657 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Anthropic
90%
OpenAI
5%
3%
DeepSeek
1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
Anthropic 90%
OpenAI 5.5%
Google 3.3%
DeepSeek <1%
$65,657 Hac.
$65,657 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Anthropic
$11,779 Hac.
90%
OpenAI
$6,737 Hac.
5%
$7,522 Hac.
3%
DeepSeek
$5,556 Hac.
1%
xAI
$4,400 Hac.
<1%
ByteDance
$3,320 Hac.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,696 Hac.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,138 Hac.
<1%
Baidu
$3,307 Hac.
<1%
Amazon
$2,855 Hac.
<1%
Mistral
$2,800 Hac.
<1%
Meituan
$3,664 Hac.
<1%
Microsoft
$2,788 Hac.
<1%
Alibaba
$3,558 Hac.
<1%
Meta
$1,546 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro claimed #1 in early April benchmarks. Claude excels in coding (1549 Elo) and multi-task reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in recent head-to-head evaluations, while Gemini leads overall text and GPQA scores. Anthropic's Claude Mythos preview, released around April 8, demonstrated benchmark leaps but remains internal. Absent confirmed rival releases—like potential GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates—traders expect leaderboard stability, though volatility persists in this rapidly evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Hacim
$65,657Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro claimed #1 in early April benchmarks. Claude excels in coding (1549 Elo) and multi-task reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in recent head-to-head evaluations, while Gemini leads overall text and GPQA scores. Anthropic's Claude Mythos preview, released around April 8, demonstrated benchmark leaps but remains internal. Absent confirmed rival releases—like potential GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates—traders expect leaderboard stability, though volatility persists in this rapidly evolving large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Hacim
$65,657Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's firm #2 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard after Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro claimed #1 in early April benchmarks. Claude excels in coding (1549 Elo) and multi-task reasoning, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 in recent head-to-head evaluations, while Gemini leads overall text and GPQA scores. Anthropic's Claude Mythos preview, released around April 8, demonstrated benchmark leaps but remains internal. Absent confirmed rival releases—like potential GPT-5.5 or Gemini updates—traders expect leaderboard stability, though volatility persists in this rapidly evolving large language model landscape.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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