Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding leaderboards, where it holds top Elo scores like 1549 as of early April updates. Recent benchmarks confirm its edge in reasoning, agentic tasks, and coding over rivals, bolstered by variants like Sonnet 4.6, amid no confirmed June releases from challengers. Google trails at 18.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive positioning and multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 8.5% reflects GPT-5 delays. Meta's new Muse Spark shows multimodal gains beating Opus 4.6 in spots, but lacks broad leadership. Watch for pre-June announcements or leaderboard shifts as catalysts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHaziran sonunda hangi şirket en iyi yapay zeka modeline sahip?
Haziran sonunda hangi şirket en iyi yapay zeka modeline sahip?
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 19%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,435,996 Hac.
$3,435,996 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Anthropic
65%
19%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
4%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 19%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,435,996 Hac.
$3,435,996 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Anthropic
$610,394 Hac.
65%
$334,999 Hac.
19%
OpenAI
$158,098 Hac.
9%
xAI
$889,218 Hac.
4%
Meta
$17,528 Hac.
2%
DeepSeek
$284,906 Hac.
1%
Amazon
$23,607 Hac.
1%
Z.ai
$202,619 Hac.
1%
Alibaba
$147,496 Hac.
<1%
Moonshot
$149,555 Hac.
<1%
Mistral
$332,474 Hac.
<1%
Meituan
$189,366 Hac.
<1%
Baidu
$36,201 Hac.
<1%
Microsoft
$26,213 Hac.
<1%
ByteDance
$33,322 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding leaderboards, where it holds top Elo scores like 1549 as of early April updates. Recent benchmarks confirm its edge in reasoning, agentic tasks, and coding over rivals, bolstered by variants like Sonnet 4.6, amid no confirmed June releases from challengers. Google trails at 18.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive positioning and multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 8.5% reflects GPT-5 delays. Meta's new Muse Spark shows multimodal gains beating Opus 4.6 in spots, but lacks broad leadership. Watch for pre-June announcements or leaderboard shifts as catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Hacim
$3,435,996Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding leaderboards, where it holds top Elo scores like 1549 as of early April updates. Recent benchmarks confirm its edge in reasoning, agentic tasks, and coding over rivals, bolstered by variants like Sonnet 4.6, amid no confirmed June releases from challengers. Google trails at 18.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive positioning and multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 8.5% reflects GPT-5 delays. Meta's new Muse Spark shows multimodal gains beating Opus 4.6 in spots, but lacks broad leadership. Watch for pre-June announcements or leaderboard shifts as catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Hacim
$3,435,996Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 65% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance on LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding leaderboards, where it holds top Elo scores like 1549 as of early April updates. Recent benchmarks confirm its edge in reasoning, agentic tasks, and coding over rivals, bolstered by variants like Sonnet 4.6, amid no confirmed June releases from challengers. Google trails at 18.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's competitive positioning and multimodal strengths, while OpenAI's 8.5% reflects GPT-5 delays. Meta's new Muse Spark shows multimodal gains beating Opus 4.6 in spots, but lacks broad leadership. Watch for pre-June announcements or leaderboard shifts as catalysts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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