Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to Anthropic powering the third-ranked model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead in recent human preference battles. On April 11, Claude Opus 4.6 overtook rivals with top Elo scores across coding (1998) and overall text tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro updates around April 6 boosted it to a close second (1941 Elo in coding), displacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 to lower positions. This positioning reflects Google's aggressive frontier model iteration amid competitive pressures, with traders eyeing potential last-minute fine-tunes or announcements from OpenAI and xAI as key catalysts before resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNisan ayı sonunda en iyi üçüncü yapay zeka modeline sahip şirket hangisidir?
Nisan ayı sonunda en iyi üçüncü yapay zeka modeline sahip şirket hangisidir?
Anthropic 76%
Google 18%
OpenAI 3.7%
Meta 2.7%
$355,723 Hac.
$355,723 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Anthropic
76%
18%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
3%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 76%
Google 18%
OpenAI 3.7%
Meta 2.7%
$355,723 Hac.
$355,723 Hac.
30 Nis 2026
Anthropic
$51,058 Hac.
76%
$41,093 Hac.
18%
OpenAI
$19,453 Hac.
4%
Meta
$7,412 Hac.
3%
DeepSeek
$43,070 Hac.
<1%
xAI
$37,926 Hac.
<1%
ByteDance
$19,598 Hac.
<1%
Baidu
$14,398 Hac.
<1%
Alibaba
$27,810 Hac.
<1%
Amazon
$26,425 Hac.
<1%
Z.ai
$26,392 Hac.
<1%
Microsoft
$5,330 Hac.
<1%
Mistral
$11,009 Hac.
<1%
Moonshot
$12,137 Hac.
<1%
Meituan
$12,613 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to Anthropic powering the third-ranked model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead in recent human preference battles. On April 11, Claude Opus 4.6 overtook rivals with top Elo scores across coding (1998) and overall text tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro updates around April 6 boosted it to a close second (1941 Elo in coding), displacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 to lower positions. This positioning reflects Google's aggressive frontier model iteration amid competitive pressures, with traders eyeing potential last-minute fine-tunes or announcements from OpenAI and xAI as key catalysts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Hacim
$355,723Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to Anthropic powering the third-ranked model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead in recent human preference battles. On April 11, Claude Opus 4.6 overtook rivals with top Elo scores across coding (1998) and overall text tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro updates around April 6 boosted it to a close second (1941 Elo in coding), displacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 to lower positions. This positioning reflects Google's aggressive frontier model iteration amid competitive pressures, with traders eyeing potential last-minute fine-tunes or announcements from OpenAI and xAI as key catalysts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Hacim
$355,723Bitiş Tarihi
30 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75.5% implied probability to Anthropic powering the third-ranked model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead in recent human preference battles. On April 11, Claude Opus 4.6 overtook rivals with top Elo scores across coding (1998) and overall text tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro updates around April 6 boosted it to a close second (1941 Elo in coding), displacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 to lower positions. This positioning reflects Google's aggressive frontier model iteration amid competitive pressures, with traders eyeing potential last-minute fine-tunes or announcements from OpenAI and xAI as key catalysts before resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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