Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 45.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in human-preference Elo scores, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench (80.8%), and GPQA reasoning (91.3%). This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including biweekly updates since January, bolstering its frontier large language model positioning amid tight competition. Google trails at 27% odds as the current #2, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths and open Gemma-4 rankings, while OpenAI's 9% share anticipates a potential GPT-6 leapfrog but lags on recent momentum. Key catalysts include May-June developer conferences and unannounced scaling runs from xAI or DeepSeek, with leaderboard volatility underscoring uncertainty in AI capability races.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHaziran sonunda hangi şirket ikinci en iyi yapay zeka modeline sahip?
Haziran sonunda hangi şirket ikinci en iyi yapay zeka modeline sahip?
Anthropic 46%
Google 27%
OpenAI 9.0%
DeepSeek 8.1%
$345,783 Hac.
$345,783 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Anthropic
46%
27%
OpenAI
9%
DeepSeek
8%
xAI
7%
Alibaba
2%
Meta
2%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 46%
Google 27%
OpenAI 9.0%
DeepSeek 8.1%
$345,783 Hac.
$345,783 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Anthropic
$6,559 Hac.
46%
$3,177 Hac.
27%
OpenAI
$31,680 Hac.
9%
DeepSeek
$245,771 Hac.
8%
xAI
$11,879 Hac.
7%
Alibaba
$3,351 Hac.
2%
Meta
$273 Hac.
2%
Z.ai
$5,534 Hac.
1%
Moonshot
$3,000 Hac.
1%
ByteDance
$283 Hac.
1%
Amazon
$147 Hac.
1%
Meituan
$32,044 Hac.
<1%
Baidu
$228 Hac.
<1%
Mistral
$1,532 Hac.
<1%
Microsoft
$325 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 45.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in human-preference Elo scores, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench (80.8%), and GPQA reasoning (91.3%). This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including biweekly updates since January, bolstering its frontier large language model positioning amid tight competition. Google trails at 27% odds as the current #2, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths and open Gemma-4 rankings, while OpenAI's 9% share anticipates a potential GPT-6 leapfrog but lags on recent momentum. Key catalysts include May-June developer conferences and unannounced scaling runs from xAI or DeepSeek, with leaderboard volatility underscoring uncertainty in AI capability races.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Hacim
$345,783Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 45.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in human-preference Elo scores, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench (80.8%), and GPQA reasoning (91.3%). This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including biweekly updates since January, bolstering its frontier large language model positioning amid tight competition. Google trails at 27% odds as the current #2, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths and open Gemma-4 rankings, while OpenAI's 9% share anticipates a potential GPT-6 leapfrog but lags on recent momentum. Key catalysts include May-June developer conferences and unannounced scaling runs from xAI or DeepSeek, with leaderboard volatility underscoring uncertainty in AI capability races.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Hacim
$345,783Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a leading 45.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent ascent to #1 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in human-preference Elo scores, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench (80.8%), and GPQA reasoning (91.3%). This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including biweekly updates since January, bolstering its frontier large language model positioning amid tight competition. Google trails at 27% odds as the current #2, buoyed by Gemini 3.1 Pro's multimodal strengths and open Gemma-4 rankings, while OpenAI's 9% share anticipates a potential GPT-6 leapfrog but lags on recent momentum. Key catalysts include May-June developer conferences and unannounced scaling runs from xAI or DeepSeek, with leaderboard volatility underscoring uncertainty in AI capability races.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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