Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous skepticism toward Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's fortified occupation since 2014 and the absence of Ukrainian ground advances toward the peninsula amid ongoing eastern frontline stalemates. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including an April 8 hit on a Feodosia oil terminal and disruptions to Kerch Strait ferries, underscore Kyiv's attrition strategy of isolating Crimea through long-range attacks on logistics, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet assets—yet these yield no territorial gains, with ISW maps confirming static control lines hundreds of kilometers away. Russian offensives near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv continue slowly, diverting resources, while Zelenskyy and Budanov reaffirm de-occupation goals without feasible timelines. Scenarios like a sudden Russian collapse, massive Western escalatory aid, or improbable ceasefire concessions could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiUkrayna 30 Haziran 2026 'ya kadar Kırım topraklarını geri alacak mı?
Ukrayna 30 Haziran 2026 'ya kadar Kırım topraklarını geri alacak mı?
Evet
$61,028 Hac.
$61,028 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$61,028 Hac.
$61,028 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous skepticism toward Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's fortified occupation since 2014 and the absence of Ukrainian ground advances toward the peninsula amid ongoing eastern frontline stalemates. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including an April 8 hit on a Feodosia oil terminal and disruptions to Kerch Strait ferries, underscore Kyiv's attrition strategy of isolating Crimea through long-range attacks on logistics, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet assets—yet these yield no territorial gains, with ISW maps confirming static control lines hundreds of kilometers away. Russian offensives near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv continue slowly, diverting resources, while Zelenskyy and Budanov reaffirm de-occupation goals without feasible timelines. Scenarios like a sudden Russian collapse, massive Western escalatory aid, or improbable ceasefire concessions could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Piyasa Açıldı: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Hacim
$61,028Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous skepticism toward Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's fortified occupation since 2014 and the absence of Ukrainian ground advances toward the peninsula amid ongoing eastern frontline stalemates. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including an April 8 hit on a Feodosia oil terminal and disruptions to Kerch Strait ferries, underscore Kyiv's attrition strategy of isolating Crimea through long-range attacks on logistics, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet assets—yet these yield no territorial gains, with ISW maps confirming static control lines hundreds of kilometers away. Russian offensives near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv continue slowly, diverting resources, while Zelenskyy and Budanov reaffirm de-occupation goals without feasible timelines. Scenarios like a sudden Russian collapse, massive Western escalatory aid, or improbable ceasefire concessions could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Hacim
$61,028Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous skepticism toward Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's fortified occupation since 2014 and the absence of Ukrainian ground advances toward the peninsula amid ongoing eastern frontline stalemates. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including an April 8 hit on a Feodosia oil terminal and disruptions to Kerch Strait ferries, underscore Kyiv's attrition strategy of isolating Crimea through long-range attacks on logistics, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet assets—yet these yield no territorial gains, with ISW maps confirming static control lines hundreds of kilometers away. Russian offensives near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv continue slowly, diverting resources, while Zelenskyy and Budanov reaffirm de-occupation goals without feasible timelines. Scenarios like a sudden Russian collapse, massive Western escalatory aid, or improbable ceasefire concessions could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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