California Proposition 43, scheduled for the November 2026 ballot, would amend the state constitution to require a two-thirds voter approval for citizen-initiated local special taxes—currently achievable by simple majority—while restricting certain charter-city real estate transfer taxes. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 63.5% for No reflects sustained opposition from local governments, public employee unions, and service advocates who argue the change would constrain revenue options for infrastructure and programs. The measure emerged from a June 2026 legislative deal that withdrew a competing initiative, yet polling trends and historical patterns on tax-limitation proposals indicate limited support for tightening initiative thresholds beyond existing rules for government-referred taxes. Key factors include fiscal impact estimates showing potential revenue losses and the absence of major endorsements or events shifting momentum ahead of the general election.