The 75% market-implied probability for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 reflects trader consensus on heightened outbreak risks, driven primarily by the explosive U.S. measles resurgence—with 1,748 confirmed cases across 33 jurisdictions as of April 16, per CDC surveillance, marking the largest since 2000 and signaling waning herd immunity (threshold ~95% vaccination coverage). Compounding this are ongoing clade I mpox transmissions globally and sporadic H5N1 bird flu detections in U.S. animals, though human risk remains low. No Level 3 notices exist currently, but epidemiological indicators like rising case counts and international spread could prompt escalation; watch weekly CDC updates and FluView reports for shifts in transmission dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
$112,110 Обс.
$112,110 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$112,110 Обс.
$112,110 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 75% market-implied probability for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 reflects trader consensus on heightened outbreak risks, driven primarily by the explosive U.S. measles resurgence—with 1,748 confirmed cases across 33 jurisdictions as of April 16, per CDC surveillance, marking the largest since 2000 and signaling waning herd immunity (threshold ~95% vaccination coverage). Compounding this are ongoing clade I mpox transmissions globally and sporadic H5N1 bird flu detections in U.S. animals, though human risk remains low. No Level 3 notices exist currently, but epidemiological indicators like rising case counts and international spread could prompt escalation; watch weekly CDC updates and FluView reports for shifts in transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$112,110Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 75% market-implied probability for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 reflects trader consensus on heightened outbreak risks, driven primarily by the explosive U.S. measles resurgence—with 1,748 confirmed cases across 33 jurisdictions as of April 16, per CDC surveillance, marking the largest since 2000 and signaling waning herd immunity (threshold ~95% vaccination coverage). Compounding this are ongoing clade I mpox transmissions globally and sporadic H5N1 bird flu detections in U.S. animals, though human risk remains low. No Level 3 notices exist currently, but epidemiological indicators like rising case counts and international spread could prompt escalation; watch weekly CDC updates and FluView reports for shifts in transmission dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$112,110Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 75% market-implied probability for a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 reflects trader consensus on heightened outbreak risks, driven primarily by the explosive U.S. measles resurgence—with 1,748 confirmed cases across 33 jurisdictions as of April 16, per CDC surveillance, marking the largest since 2000 and signaling waning herd immunity (threshold ~95% vaccination coverage). Compounding this are ongoing clade I mpox transmissions globally and sporadic H5N1 bird flu detections in U.S. animals, though human risk remains low. No Level 3 notices exist currently, but epidemiological indicators like rising case counts and international spread could prompt escalation; watch weekly CDC updates and FluView reports for shifts in transmission dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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