Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Chinese meteorological services converge on a September 1 high near 29°C in Beijing, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 28.9°C, amid typical late-summer conditions with light northeasterly winds, low humidity around 50%, and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the even 18.5% implied probabilities across the 26–30°C brackets, reflecting traders' assessment of small-scale uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show September 1 highs ranging from 20–35°C, but current stable high-pressure patterns and consistent model runs limit downside or upside tail risks, keeping extreme outcomes at 3.5%. Updated NWP runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these near-term details ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on September 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 1?
30°C 34%
29°C 33%
28°C 21%
27°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
24°C or below
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
9%
28°C
21%
29°C
33%
30°C
34%
31°C
13%
32°C
6%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
7%
30°C 34%
29°C 33%
28°C 21%
27°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Обс.
4%
25°C
$0 Обс.
4%
26°C
$0 Обс.
2%
27°C
$22 Обс.
9%
28°C
$0 Обс.
21%
29°C
$0 Обс.
33%
30°C
$10 Обс.
34%
31°C
$11 Обс.
13%
32°C
$0 Обс.
6%
33°C
$0 Обс.
6%
34°C or higher
$0 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Chinese meteorological services converge on a September 1 high near 29°C in Beijing, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 28.9°C, amid typical late-summer conditions with light northeasterly winds, low humidity around 50%, and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the even 18.5% implied probabilities across the 26–30°C brackets, reflecting traders' assessment of small-scale uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show September 1 highs ranging from 20–35°C, but current stable high-pressure patterns and consistent model runs limit downside or upside tail risks, keeping extreme outcomes at 3.5%. Updated NWP runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these near-term details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$43Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Chinese meteorological services converge on a September 1 high near 29°C in Beijing, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 28.9°C, amid typical late-summer conditions with light northeasterly winds, low humidity around 50%, and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the even 18.5% implied probabilities across the 26–30°C brackets, reflecting traders' assessment of small-scale uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show September 1 highs ranging from 20–35°C, but current stable high-pressure patterns and consistent model runs limit downside or upside tail risks, keeping extreme outcomes at 3.5%. Updated NWP runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these near-term details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$43Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and Chinese meteorological services converge on a September 1 high near 29°C in Beijing, close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 28.9°C, amid typical late-summer conditions with light northeasterly winds, low humidity around 50%, and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the even 18.5% implied probabilities across the 26–30°C brackets, reflecting traders' assessment of small-scale uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or minor model spread that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show September 1 highs ranging from 20–35°C, but current stable high-pressure patterns and consistent model runs limit downside or upside tail risks, keeping extreme outcomes at 3.5%. Updated NWP runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these near-term details ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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