Persistent high-pressure ridging and typical early-August climatology in north Texas position 100–101°F as the leading outcome for Dallas’s daily maximum on August 4, aligning with AccuWeather and long-range guidance showing seasonal highs near 99–102°F amid normal-to-above-normal summer temperatures. Recent model runs indicate limited moisture return and weak steering flow that should favor mostly sunny skies with only modest afternoon convection, keeping peak readings in the upper 90s to low 100s rather than the triple-digit spikes seen during the late-July heat wave. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook for August 4–10 favors above-average warmth across Texas, yet ensemble spread and historical variability around the 100°F threshold leave room for the secondary 102–103°F and 104–105°F bins. Updated National Weather Service guidance and any last-model runs tomorrow morning will be the key data points traders monitor before resolution.