Recent ensemble guidance from European and global models positions Munich’s August 8 maximum near 28–31 °C amid a post-heatwave cooldown, with scattered clouds and possible late-day convection moderating peak heating. The tight clustering around 29–31 °C reflects modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, residual moisture advection from upstream fronts, and the exact timing or coverage of showers that could reduce solar insolation. DWD and ECMWF runs show limited spread, yet slight differences in low-level wind or cloud onset can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Traders therefore weigh these microphysical and dynamical variables, which official station readings will ultimately resolve.